samyets

BEAT THE DROP

The focus of the Bundesliga has been on the dominance of Bayern Munich who seem to have run away with the league in a blink of an eye, but today’s focus is on the bottom 2. Paderborn host Werder Bremen in a game that anything less than 3 points looks like a certain relegation for them, they’re currently 8 points behind 16^th place Dusseldorf and 11 behind Mainz with a possible 12 points remaining. Dusseldorf host Dortmund at the same time as this game so it’s likely the Paderborn faithful will be keeping a keen eye on it because if Dusseldorf pull out a shock win, Paderborn’s Bundesliga run is over.

The attention for this game seems to be on Paderborn but Werder Bremen are in a horrible position considering the club’s vast top tier history, a win for the away side today puts them level with Dusseldorf and will be a continuation of the form they’ve brought back since the resumption of football. Bremen have claimed 7 of the last 15 points available and 6 of them have been claimed away from home which is something that Bremen have done all season, they’ve won 19 of their 25 league points on the road. Leonardo Bittencourt scored the only goals in the recent wins but is an injury doubt for today’s game. Bremen’s recent 3 away wins have all been by a 1-0 scoreline which also bodes well considering only 23% of Bundesliga games since the resumption have been won by the home side.

Side-by-Side comparisons of home and away form showing Bremen’s prominence on the road–– Stats from www.flashscore.com

Despite Paderborn’s league position they’ve only lost 1 of their last 5 games but have also gone without a win. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw against Leipzig where they dominated for the entire second half with Leipzig being down to 10 men early on, it showed very positive signs for what this team is capable of with such a limited budget. The West German side got promoted to the Bundesliga this season after back to back promotions from the German third tier and regardless of the conclusion of this season, they’ve proven to be worthy of their spot in the league.

Paderborn have scored in every single home game excluding one this season but have not kept a clean sheet in 12 home games, panning back to a 2-0 win against Dusseldorf. Starting centre-back Uwe Hünemeier has played every minute of Paderborn’s recent 5 matches and is suspended after a fifth yellow card against Leipzig. Klaus Gjasula broke a Bundesliga record for yellow cards when getting his 15^th in his 25^th appearance vs Augsburg but has since got another card and looks likely to continue the trend with his reckless style of midfield play.

The two teams both have the same record in regards to games being over 2.5 goals, Paderborn have seen 11/15 home games with 3 or more goals and Bremen have also seen over 2.5 in 11 of their away games this season.

This game has huge relevance for both teams and is bound to be feisty, below is a bet that takes into consideration some of these stats shown.

11/1 and 6/1 winners in the two previous pieces, more bets, stats and sport can be found on my Twitter.

WITHIN REACH

Bayern Munich sit 7 points clear at the top of the Bundesliga with an available 15 points up for grabs meaning that 3 wins would increase their already record breaking streak of 7 straight titles. Their opposition and hosts today are Bayer Leverkusen who’re currently joint in 4^th with Mönchengladbach (who lost against Freiburg last night) so any dropped points today would significantly dent their hopes for a top 4 finish and possibly be considered a missed opportunity.

The reverse fixture ended with 3 points for the away side Leverkusen, they came away 2-1 victors and manager Peter Bosz extended his 100% win-rate against Bayern as the manager of Leverkusen to 2 from 2. In that fixture, all goals were scored in the first half which is the normal for these sides, Leverkusen themselves have seen a goal in 11 of their 12 games this calendar year and in the previous 6 head to head’s between the sides there’s been an average of 2.17 first half goals.

Leon Bailey scored a first half brace in the reverse fixture at the Allianz- 30/11/19

Havertz has continued to fuel his form with 5 goals in 4 games and he was injured when the reverse fixture was played aswell, he’s the man to change the game and try and cement a Champions League spot. The race is well and truly on for the top 4 spaces after Monchengladbach’s loss last night, any points at all for Bayer today will move them up into 4^th.

Bayern have been simply electric since the start of December. In November they lost back to back games, one of which was today’s reverse fixture and one was against Mönchengladbach; since then they’ve won 18 games and only drawn once. In the Champions League they’ve put themselves on the board as possible favourites after easily disposing of Tottenham and Chelsea and in the Bundesliga they’ve set a standard levels above the rest of the league of late. In the most recent 8 games they’ve collected 7 clean sheets and as expected, Lewandowski has hit the ground running with 4 goals in as many games.

For today’s game there’s no fresh injury worries but there is a few players on the brink of suspension at such an important time of the season. Leverkusen’s centre back pairing of Jonathan Tah and Aleksandar Dragović have both received 4 yellow cards each, hence one away from a suspension- Tah was also sent off in the reverse fixture. Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller, the league’s top goal scorer and goal creator are also both one yellow card away from being suspended.

It’s hard to ignore Leverkusen’s 100% win record vs Bayern whilst having Peter Bosz as manager but the way in which Bayern have been playing doesn’t seem to show any signs of real weakness. The league leaders have been priced at roughly 1/2 by the bookmakers but the value lies elsewhere. It is definitely worth noting that the last 6 head to heads between the sides have had 27 goals, an average of 4.5 goals a game.

A magnificent game for a neutral which could all but wrap up the title or open it up, shown below is a bet builder, created with some of the previously mentioned stats.

NOTE- stake not shown, this bet is a long-shot, stake accordingly (Price accurate as of 13:00 06/06/2020) EDIT- Tah did not start, changed to Dragovic.

For further bets, predictions and other sporting activity follow my Twitter.

RELEGATION RELEVANCE

A big week of announcements in the sporting world has seen the Premier League have an allocated return date, June 17^th– something to really look forward to.

With 19 days until the return of English football, the Bundesliga’s non-stop exciting action will continue to fulfil the football need. As usual, there’s four 14:30 fixtures today and every single one of them has relevance to the relegation battle.

Hertha Berlin v Augsburg

Hertha Berlin play hosts to Augsburg who’ve taken a step outside of the bottom 6 after a comprehensive 3-0 away win against Schalke, their away form is still questionable at best though with 5 straight losses prior to that result with only 1 goal scored, Augsburg have also averaged 2.21 goals conceded per away league game this season. Hertha have looked a completely different team since the appointment of Bruno Labbadia last month, they’ve played 3 games since the resumption of football, scored 9 goals and picked up 7 points which has all but assured their safety and an outside shot of 6^th place.

Piatek scoring the equaliser to confirm a big point in Hertha’s recent 2-2 draw with Leipzig

Matheus Cunha’s signing from Leipzig for 18,000,000€ was to be questioned after 2 goals in 35 appearances but he’s been fantastic and scored 4 goals whilst looking like a constant threat to any defence he’s faced. The Brazilian is bound to cause a problem for an Augsburg backline that concedes for fun.

Hertha Berlin to win 2-0 is generally available at 9/1

Hertha Berlin to win is generally available at 10/11.

Mainz v Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim won their first game in 8 with an eventful 3-1 win against Köln where young Christoph Baumgartner once again stole the show with 2 goals and an outstanding backheel assist. The Austrian has now scored 6 goals in his first season in professional football and looks like a player to keep a close eye on in the coming years. Today’s opponents Mainz have conceded the most goals so far this season in the Bundesliga and sit 1 point above a relegation play-off position whilst only losing 2 of their last 8 league fixtures.

Recent meetings between the 2 sides at Mainz’ Opel Arena have seen plenty of goals, 9 of the last 10 meetings have had over 2.5 goals scored and both teams have scored in 7 of those. Benjamin Hübner was sent off for Hoffenheim in their win against Köln and will be suspended for today’s game, Kramarić is also nursing an ankle injury so will be missing too.

Christoph Baumgartner to score and both teams to score is generally available around 5/2.

Schalke v Werder Bremen

Schalke’s David Wagner’s job security is getting more and more shaky with a consistent string of poor performances from a side that were in the top 6 less than 2 weeks ago. Schalke have now dropped to 9^th, haven’t won in 10 games, and have only scored 3 goals in those matches, they’ve also conceded the most in the league within those 10. Their opponents Werder Bremen, are second from bottom and are at risk of dropping out of the top tier of German football for the first time in 40 years; they’ve only ever been in the second tier for one season in their history. Despite a horrendous season, they look to stand more chance against this crumbling Schalke side that are on a drastic fall down the table.

Sergio Cordoba finalizing a 3-0 loss for Schalke 24-05-2020

Bremen’s three games since the league’s return have seen them pick up 4 points from a possible 9 which for a team in their position is not at all a negative. The bookmakers have priced Schalke up as favourites for the game but after seeing the standard they’ve been playing at, that’s a surprise. Milot Rashica is Bremen’s top goalscorer this season with 7 goals but has had a 12-game goal drought and could find the back of the net in a game where he’ll find chances.

Werder Bremen to win or draw and under 2.5 goals is generally available at 15/8

Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt

Wolfsburg pulled off a shock 4-1 win away against high flying Leverkusen with a man of the match performance from Max Arnold who contributed 2 assists and scored a free kick with the help of a deflection. Frankfurt have finished in the European places the past two seasons but find themselves in a relegation scrap this time around, they’re only 2 points above the relegation zone so travelling to in-form Wolfsburg will be no easy feat. Furthermore, Frankfurt’s away form is the worst in the Bundesliga, they’ve managed to claim 7 points and in their last 14 away games they’ve conceded 41 goals, an average of 2.92 goals per game. The only positive that could possibly be taken is that they’ve scored in 10 of those games despite conceding so many.

Wolfsburg home form is one of the worst in the division despite the 6^th position they sit in, they’ve scored and conceded just over 1 goal a game, making their home fixtures a tough watch for the neutrals- but they should come away with a win today.

Wolfsburg to win is generally available at EVENS

Wolfsburg to win 2-1 is generally available at 8/1

Here is the league table as a visual reminder of some of the teams in action, some wins for the lower teams will make things very interesting. Paderborn host Dortmund on Sunday and Düsseldorf travel to Bayern so any points collected by their surrounding teams should allow them to make ground towards safety.

Check out my twitter for more betting selections and a extensive sheet of predictions for the specific games on a bi-weekly basis.

INDIVIDUAL BRILLIANCE

This evening’s entertainment is of the highest possible quality. The title challenge could be all but concluded tonight if Bayern pick up a win away in Dortmund, it’d put them 7 points away from their rivals and 10 away from 3^rd placed Leipzig, but a win for Dortmund would put them 1 point behind current leaders, Bayern.

Bayern annihilated Dortmund in the reverse fixture at the Allianz, they completed a routine victory by 4 goals to nil where Lewandowski scored a brace and Dortmund only had a single shot. In recent times Bayern have dominated games in terms of possession and chances but the results tends to be varied, Dortmund won the Super Cup at the start of this season 2-0 but Bayern had 65% possession and had 16 shots in comparison to Dortmund’s 5. The result is all that really matters when all is said and done but the way Bayern have dominated in recent times really make the worry set in.

This game has plenty of relevance for the title challenge but also for some individual records, Robert Lewandowski has 27 goals in his 25 appearances in the Bundesliga this season and is only 5 goals away from the highest goal tally the league has seen in 44 years. Pierre Emerick Aubameyang scored 31 goals in the 2016/17 season and with exception of Lewandowski, the 30-goal mark hadn’t been reached since 1976. It’s unlikely that Lewandowski would break into the top 4 highest tallies, Dieter Müller scored 34 goals that year and the three records higher were all set by German legend, Gerd Müller (38 in 69/70, 40 in 71/72 and 36 in 72/73).

The record for assists is also under threat and two of the players challenging the lofty mark set by Kevin De Bruyne (21 in 2014), are in action today.

Kevin De Bruyne winning Player of the Year in 2014- only the fifth non German to do so

Thomas Müller has 17 to his name and Jadon Sancho has 16, both players are well within reach of matching the record if not breaking it. Sancho has only played 38 minutes of football since the re-commencement of the Bundesliga after lingering injury worries whereas Müller has played every minute bar 2. Müller is averaging an assist every 102 minutes and averages a goal contribution every 72 when you include the 7 he’s scored himself, but Sancho is something else. The Englishman is still only 20 years old and has had a part in 30 league goals so far this season, he’s been a part of a goal every 61 minutes this season which is simply absurd.

Football hasn’t been at the same level as it was prior to the pandemic but these two huge clubs have looked the closest to playing at the top standard so you can guarantee a great game, especially when you add in what’s at stake.

The history behind this fixture doesn’t allow a certain idea of what the outcome will be but after seeing 180 minutes played by both teams in the last 10 days, you’d be leaning towards Bayern. The offensive threat of Dortmund is never to be underestimated but as Bayern have proven time and time again, they turn up for the big occasion.

Bookmakers agree that Bayern enter the game as favourites despite Dortmund being unbeaten at home this season in the league and they’ve also only lost 1 in their last 30 Bundesliga home fixtures. It’s a very difficult game to have a wager on but there’s nothing concrete that would be comfortable enough to recommend. I’ll personally post my bets on my twitter nearer to kick off (5:30PM) if that’s of interest.

What a game in prospect, enjoy.

FIGHT FOR FOURTH

3^rd faces 5^th in an enticing looking fixture in which Monchengladbach host Leverkusen at Borussia Park in a battle for a top four spot, both teams are comfortably clear of 6^th place Wolfsburg and a win either way this afternoon will be a big 3 points.

The reverse fixture in November finished 2-1 in favour of the away side Monchengladbach and all the goals were scored in the first half which is not uncommon for Leverkusen. In their 26 league games this season there’s been 45 goals scored in their first halves, which is an average of 1.73 a game and the highest in the Bundesliga- it’s also 56% of the goals they’ve seen in the league this season. Monchengladbach have had 2 or more goals scored in 84% of their overall matches this season too with Leverkusen having 88% of their games with 2 or more.

Bayer Leverkusen were very impressive in brushing aside a struggling Bremen side in their comeback game on Monday where they walked away 4-1 victors, Kai Havertz also got on the scoresheet twice in the first half. Leverkusen have been relentless away from home in recent games, in their last 7 games in all competitions they’ve scored a total of 19 goals, an average of 2.71 goals per game. The aforementioned Havertz looks to be coming into a nice run of form too, he’s now scored 8 league goals this season and with the ongoing ankle injury for Kevin Volland, he’s going to be the talisman up top.

Leverkusen celebrating their win in Bremen- 18/05/2020

Monchengladbach restarted their season with a 3-1 win away in Frankfurt and Alassane Plea scored within the first minute, Ramy Bensebaini also netted from the spot for his fifth goal of the season from defence in only his twelfth appearance and it’s clear to see why he’s keeping the long-serving Oscar Wendt out of the side. Gladbach have scored an average of 2 goals a game in the league this season and 57% of those have come at home but unfortunately, they do concede on a regular basis too. In the 13 home fixtures they have played this season, there’s been 11 occasions where their opponent has scored and they’ve also managed only 5 clean sheets overall, a 19.2%, not quite good enough for a top four side.

It’s a very difficult game to call which way it’s going to go, Monchengladbach’s good home form is really overshadowed by the Leverkusen offensive threat, the away side have also scored 5 goals in 2 of their last 4 games away at Gladbach. The bookies have opened up with the home side as favourites with a slight swing in their favour at around 13/10 (2.30), but the value undoubtedly lies in the away side.

Here’s a little wager including some of the previously mentioned stats that represents some value.

Price Accurate as of 23rd of May 10:20AM

KING OF THE STONES

Tom “the Albatross” Stoltman is attempting an improvement on his own atlas stone world record at 6PM GMT on the 23^rd of May, just a week after his brother Luke had a go at breaking Žydrūnas Savickas’ 2015 log press world record.

The 2020 Britain’s Strongest Man runner-up looks more than capable of performing this lift, he’s going from strength to strength every year and has also been Scotland’s strongest man for the last 2 years. The previous record he set at the Arnold Classic in Ohio was for 273KG (602lbs) and there was absolutely no hesitation as he stepped up to a historic atlas stone lift and looked as if he was capable of a lot more.

That record was not only impressive in the way Tom dispatched of the stone, but it was also 22KG heavier than the previous record set by Brian Shaw in 2016. Tom Stoltman also holds the world record for 5 standard atlas stones at a ridiculous 16.01 seconds beating Mateusz Kieliszkowski who formerly held the record at 16.09.

The atlas stone event is considered the most iconic test of strength in the strongman world and is the event at the competitions finish, it originally was introduced in 1986 and the stones back then ranged from 100-160KG whereas now the competition standard is between 120-200KG; lifting the stones onto platforms descending in height, retrospective to the weight of the stone. The event tends to favour the taller, heavier athletes and at 6ft 8 and 155KG, Tom fits the bill.

This is the third record breaking event we’ve seen since the COVID-19 pandemic has been active, Hafþór Júlíus Björnsson broke the deadlift world record, lifting 501KG (1104lbs) and Luke Stoltman came very close to breaking the log record. Tom is the third athlete to try and break a record and next week Oleksii Novikov is going to be having a crack at breaking the record for lifting a giant dumbbell for repetitions.

Tune in and watch Tom for this unbelievable feat of strength and manpower- 6PM UK TIME on chttps://coresports.world/

LEIPING TO THE TOP

It’s an absolute joy to be able to get excited for sports again and the Bundesliga is commencing during the COVID-19 pandemic with 6 fixtures this Saturday. Leipzig are currently sitting 3^rd in the table, only 5 points from top spot Bayern but they’ve lost less games than the German Champions and have a real chance of maintaining a very impressive finish to the season.

Leipzig have conceded the joint least goals this season but have had an issue winning games of late. In their last 7 Bundesliga games they’ve dropped points in 5 of them. Amongst those 7 fixtures they annihilated 6^th place Schalke away at the Veltins Arena and claimed a respectable point away at Bayern too. Unfortunately, their loss to under performing Frankfurt and failures to prevent conceding early goals against Leverkusen and Monchengladbach have meant they’ve slipped a few points behind the title challengers.

Timo Werner’s electric start to the season has fizzled out with the striker scoring just 1 in his last 7 league appearances as opposed to the 20 he scored in his first 18 games. The speculation surrounding him is immense as he’s available for a cheap fee considering his talent but he’s more than capable of flying back into form, especially after a 2-month break. Leipzig also have a tendency to score late, they’ve scored 12 out of their 62 league goals after the 80-minute mark, that’s a whopping 19% of their overall tally.

Freiburg won the Bundesliga 2 in 15/16 and then followed up with a European spot the year after but have finished in 13^th and 15^th in the most recent two seasons. This year has been hugely different where they’re only 1 point away from 6^th and therefore Europe again. Nils Petersen is the man that’s expected to provide the goals, he’s been prolific for 6 seasons now and has scored 73 goals in his 158 appearances, an average of 0.46 goals a game. This season the problem has been consistency, they’ve lost games that you’d be expecting points in- 2-0 home losses to 16^th and 18^th place Dusseldorf and Paderborn really raise a question.

Petersen pictured above, celebrating with Luca Waldschmidt

In the 9 meetings between the sides it’s a very even split with the results, there’s only been 1 draw and each side has picked up 4 wins each. Freiburg’s 4 wins have all come whilst playing at home and have never returned with more than a point when travelling to Leipzig. The reverse fixture in October this season saw Freiburg come away 2-1 victors and Leipzig only scored a consolation in the dying minutes of stoppage time.

This time around, Leipzig simply must win to keep their title challenge alive, after this game against Freiburg they’ve only got to play 2 more teams in the top half in their remaining 8 games, Hoffenheim away (13^th June) and Dortmund at home (20^th June), 3 points could really set them on their way and a win is anticipated.

The bookies have priced Leipzig as a very short price so the value doesn’t lie in the traditional markets, the referee for today’s game is Tobias Stieler and he’s given out 39 yellow cards and 6 reds in only 12 games he’s refereed this year. Konrad Laimer is notorious for yellow cards, the Austrian midfielder averages 0.40 cards per game and has also picked up a yellow card in 4 of his last 6 appearances. Nicolas Hofler of Freiburg is very similar in regard to the lack of discipline, he’s averaged 0.31 cards per game over the last 4 seasons and is an excellent choice for a punt.

Here is a bet builder with some of the stats shown in this piece, I’m going to have a play on it, the stake is not shown, bet what you can justify. Good luck and enjoy the return of football.

Price accurate as of 15:30pm 15/05/20 with bet365

RETURN OF FOOTBALL

Amidst the pandemic, the German government have amazingly given the all clear for the Bundesliga to commence starting May 16^th-despite three players testing positive for COVID-19 just this week. From a sports fan perspective, the sport partially returning will be a delight for eyes that haven’t seen high quality football for almost two months and the Bundesliga is one of the most exciting leagues in the world at the moment.

Bayern Munich are top of the league by four points and are on track for their eighth title in a row with Robert Lewandowski consistently leading the line and scoring incomprehensible amount of goals. The polish man has scored 20+ goals in 8 of his 10 seasons at the top level and seems to be getting better and better at the ripe age of 31. Bayern look to stand a good chance of retaining their title but their nearest rivals Borussia Dortmund, are only four points behind and have put a magnificent team together after the signing of wonderkid, Håland.

Dortmund signed Jadon Sancho for a bargain fee of around £8 million and last season bagged 12 goals alongside a further 17 assists which is an amazing season by anyone’s standards but for an 18-year-old that’s as promising as it comes. This season has not been any different, he’s scored 14 goals and managed 15 assists in 23 games, an average of 1.26 goal contributions a game, ridiculous. Thorgan Hazard and Hakimi have also registered 10 assists each, really proving that the offensive power that Dortmund possesses is uncapped.

Leipzig have been a joy to watch in very recent times, the Eastern based club was only founded in 2009 but have spring boarded into Germanys topflight and have proven it is in no way a fluke. They seem to continue defying expectations and have proven in the Champions League that they’re ready to compete on the international stage aswell. Timo Werner has been the centre of endless interest from Europe’s top clubs and is available for a fee affordable by the majority and it’s with good reason. The German striker has led the line for the whole of Leipzig’s four year run in the Bundesliga so far and has scored 71 goals so far- this season scoring 21 in only 25 appearances. Peter Gulácsi and Dayot Upamecano have also been huge in Leipzig’s rise, with Gulácsi in goal during the 33 games he played last season he had a 48.5% clean sheet ratio, over 7% higher than Gladbach’s Sommer in second.

Borussia Monchengladbach have ascended to the top half of the German league in the last 5 years and picked up manager Marco Rose from a massively overachieving Salzburg side that not only won the Austrian league but managed a European semi-final. Monchengladbach haven’t got any world beating players like the three teams above them but with their style of play and management they’re a real force to be reckoned with and have shown great consistency against the lower teams but have struggled against their top 6 competitors, with exception of a home win against Bayern. The West German side haven’t finished in the top 2 of the Bundesliga in 42 years and it’d be some feat to finish there this season. The club is on the rise none the less and with the Champions League football they’re also playing, they’re one to keep a close eye on in the coming years.

Bayer Leverkusen at the end of the 20^th century were one of Germany’s top teams and have fallen from grace without a strong Bundesliga finish in over 10 years. They’ve proven themselves to still be a prominent threat this year with wins against Dortmund and a strong run in the Champions League but they started the season very poorly and find themselves in 5^th, 2 points behind the previously mentioned, Monchengladbach. Leon Bailey’s injury riddled season hasn’t helped with their current league position and Kai Havertz also hasn’t figured as much as last season. If Leverkusen could resume the form they were on prior to the break, they’re going to find a way into the top 4.

The sixth position in the Bundesliga is currently occupied by Schalke who sit 10 points behind Leverkusen, but are very closely followed by Wolfsburg, Freiburg and Hoffenheim who are all separated by only 2 points. Finishing in this position in the league will get any of these sides the chance to qualify for the Europa league and that’d be expected for each of these clubs as they’re regularly taking part in European competitions but for Freiburg it’d be a great finish. They were promoted as champions in 2015/16 and secured a European qualification spot in their first season back in the topflight but were unsuccessful in a first round exit to Slovenian side, Domžale. The European spots are very closely contested but the difference between the rest of the league is not a huge jump either.

Cologne make up 10^th position with 32 points, 3 points behind the European hopefuls. They sit in the middle of the table, 5 points from 6^th and 6 points from just above the relegation zone so there’s no space for slip ups. 11^th to 14 consists of Union Berlin, Frankfurt, Hertha Berlin and Augsburg. Frankfurt really stand out in this group, the last 2 seasons they’ve secured European football but after the sales of Sebastian Haller and Luka Jović they’ve seemed to lack the cutting edge offensively, they’ve also only kept 4 clean sheets in 25 games which is inexcusable.

Sebastian Haller and Luka Jovic celebrating vs Shakthar in last seasons Europa League

The bottom four in this seasons Bundesliga are currently Mainz, Dusseldorf, Werder Bremen and finally, Paderborn. The relegation setup for the German league and a few other European leagues is different to the English system that many football fans are familiar with. The bottom two clubs get automatically relegated and 16^th (third bottom) goes into a play-off game against the team that finish 3^rd in the Bundesliga .2, the winner gets their place in the top tier and the loser plays the next season in the second tier.

Werder Bremen have played the most games as a club in the Bundesliga’s history and the topflight regulars are in serious danger of relegation, they’re sitting on 18 points with safety 8 points away. The 2004 league and cup double winners had expectations of Europe this season and it’s gone horrendously wrong and could be a sour year in the club’s brilliant history. Bremen have scored the least goals in the league this season and have also conceded the most, they’re in a difficult position.

The remaining 9 games start this weekend and it remains to be seen how these teams will return to football, there is rumours that each team will be allowed five substitutes but for how long that rule will continue is yet to be known. A match preview will be available here on Friday, football is back folks.

Below is the current Bundesliga in full

EDDIE, HOW?

Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth have been a joy to watch in recent years with offensive football against whichever opponent they face, which made for exciting games with plenty of goals. During the current five season spell in the Premier League, Bournemouth have relied on their goalscoring ability to simply outscore the opposition despite having defensive issues along the way. From the 15/16 season where they came up to the PL, to the end of last season’s campaign, they conceded a total of 265 goals in 152 games, an average of 1.74 goals- a gargantuan amount. They’ve managed to score 201 goals along the way, a 1.32 goal a game average, which has sufficed.

This season’s downward spiral has been down to the lack of goals, the Cherries are currently sitting in 18^th position (level on points with 16^thand 17^th placed West Ham and Watford) with 27 points in 29 games and with 29 goals scored. The usual threshold for Premier League safety tends to be marked at 40 points, in recent seasons anywhere between 37-40 has seemed to be enough but if the season was to continue it’d take a real turn around to see that happen.

Tyrone Mings was sent on loan to Aston Villa in January 2019 and later joined them for a £20 million fee last summer, but he is exactly what Bournemouth are lacking with all their registered defenders suffering one or more injuries each throughout this year. Lloyd Kelly was purchased from Bristol City for £13,000,000 after looking very promising at full-back in the Championship but he suffered a hamstring injury in early November and hasn’t been seen at all in the PL this season. Arnaut Groeneveld cost the Cherries £13,700,000 and similar to Kelly has been riddled with injuries and hasn’t hit the scene as expected, he’s only played 405 minutes in the PL but there’s bound to be more to come once he’s returned to full fitness.

Lloyd Kelly signing for Bournemouth, the signing was completed on May 18th 2019

It’s arguably been an unfortunate season for Bournemouth with new signings getting injured and the trend doesn’t end with the new signings. Josh King has missed 10 out of 29 games through injury and David Brooks has been injured since July 2019. The Welshman lit the league up in his debut year after arriving from Sheffield United, he contributed to 13 goals and always looked a threat up until his injury and there’s been a significant setback in the goalscoring of Bournemouth ever since.

Bournemouth’s performance relies on a fit squad and the likes of Calum Wilson, Nathan Ake and Aaron Ramsdale have been able to keep Bournemouth from really falling away from the pack. There’s the obvious likelihood for a summer signing overhaul if they were to stay in the Premier League, Eddie Howe’s side will more than likely sign an experienced PL goalkeeper someone along the lines of Michel Vorm who is currently Tottenham’s third goalkeeper but would be more than capable of a supporting role to young Ramsdale. An addition defensively could be seen as a good signing with the likes of Simon Francis moving into his more advanced years, Ben Godfrey would be an excellent replacement considering the likelihood of Norwich being relegated, he could be snapped up on a relatively cheap deal and he’d be a perfect partner for Nathan Ake to really sure up the defensive woes. Harry Wilson is currently on loan and has been a rare shining light this season and a permanent deal to keep him at the Vitality would be a great deal too.

Harry Wilson scoring a free kick in a 3-1 home defeat to Man City on August 25th 2019

Eddie Howe is vital to what Bournemouth are doing and they’ve got a better squad than the teams around them so they’re undoubtedly capable of staying in the Premier League but as the pandemic continues, we’ll wait and see what the PL board decides for the rest of the season.

PITY, CITY?

In an uncertain time during this global pandemic it’s to be assumed the season will end as it’s currently standing; what that means for next year’s competitions, is unknown. There’s been a few disappointing teams that have not lived up to expectation and should undoubtedly be doing better with the squads they’ve got and the finances available.

If you look at Manchester City’s league position, it’s very difficult to use the phrase “disappointing” for a team that are second that could win their game in hand and go 7 points clear of third. Pep Guardiola’s side set a seriously high bar in the 18/19 PL campaign by recording the second highest points tally the PL has ever seen- a year after they set the highest (100 points). This year they’re currently 25 points behind Liverpool who sit top and there’s a few reasons as to why that could be.

Aymeric Laporte was a staple in the title winning side of last season and played 3056 minutes, he’s only played 504 this year due to injuries and his presence has been a clear miss in the City core. Laporte is not only a consistent centre back but he’s also a huge piece of the offensive puzzle, the lack of passing out from the back and all over the pitch has majorly halted City’s progress and Laporte in the 18/19 season was head and shoulders above any other defender in Europe for “progressive carries of the ball”, the Frenchman also completed the most passes out of any defender in the 18/19 season.

Above is a graph from OptaPro, showing Laporte’s progressive movements in possession vs defenders in the other top 5 leagues

Leroy Sane in recent years has been vital to City’s title winning squads, the German winger has contributed 20 goals and 27 assists in the previous two seasons and has not played a single minute this season due to being riddled with injury. Man City scored 95 goals in last year’s heroic season which is an average of 2.5 goals a game, this year they’re not significantly worse with a 2.42 average. The problem lies in the defensive areas, they averaged 0.60 goals conceded p/ game last season but have jumped up to a 1.10 goal per game this campaign.

The way City went about their business last season you’d have thought they wouldn’t need to add to their already world class squad, but they signed Rodri from Atletico for £63,000,000 and Joao Cancelo for £58,000,000. The signing of Rodri has looked a good one especially since Fernandinho’s necessary move back into defence with the absence of Laporte but Cancelo hasn’t quite looked the full package for the price tag.

In times like these, most of the City squad and every other team will have their teams return to full fitness due to the foreseeable future being football-less but there has been some holes opened up during this season that City will need to be filling. Oleksandr Zinchenko has been a makeshift left back whilst Benjamin Mendy has been in and out of the injury room over the last couple of seasons and he’s looked capable, just not to the standard that City require.

The transfer window is somewhere along the line but it’s unclear to tell when City will be able to sign players but if you look at their squad, a consistently fit world class full back looks a necessary purchase. Achraf Hakimi is currently on loan at Dortmund from Real Madrid and has looked fantastic offensively in the Bundesliga and has 3 goals and 10 assists, primarily from full back- he’s also able to play on either side of the pitch and the wings. There’s a lot of transfer speculation surrounding the Moroccan at the moment, but City’s name hasn’t been mentioned at the time of writing, it would not be a surprise to see their name thrown into the mix.

Achraf Hakimi pictured after scoring a second goal in a 3-2 win against Inter Milan in this season’s Champions League

Under Pep, City always look dangerous and it’ll be a treat to see them back in action. To be honest, it’d just be great to have football back, there is discussion of the Premier League being finished behind closed doors in the next couple of months, but we can only hope.