This Saturday isn’t the usual Super Saturday due to the lack of Premier League football but there’s still Nations League to be played alongside League One and two to keep the football fix fulfilled.
Peterborough travel to Crewe with intention to extend their 3 point lead at the top of League One and have plenty in their favour to support that challenge. Jonson Clarke-Harris has scored 6 league goals this season with 4 of those being in his last 5 starts. Peterborough have also scored 21 in their 11 league games which is an average of 1.90 goals a game, Crewe have scored a mere 0.80 a game and the recently promoted side do not look to have offensively adapted to the higher standard of football. Crewe have also lost their last 3 away fixtures with Peterborough winning 4 of their last 5, at just above even money- the Posh look a great bet.
League Two’s current second position side is Cambridge who have been on fire with 24 goals scored in their 11 matches, their strike force of Joe Ironside and Paul Mullin have scored 17 goals between them, the third most goals scored by a team in the league is 17 so that’s really an astounding feat. Today’s opposition are newly promoted Barrow, they’re currently in 19th and haven’t been as poor as the position would imply but they have lost 6 of their last 7 away games whilst Cambridge have won 5 of their last 7 at home- one of which was in the cup against League One leaders Peterborough. Cambridge should have enough today.
Paul Mullin (left) and Joe Ironside (centre) celebrating in their 2-0 away win against Walsall
Oldham are lingering near the relegation zone in 20th position but looked to have turned a corner with 10 goals scored in their last 5 matches in which they’ve also won 4 of them. The opposition for today is Scunthorpe who’ve only played 8 games so far this season but have looked shocking in each of those. They’re 23rd just ahead of Southend who’ve had plenty of internal problems but Scunthorpe have also only scored 4 goals in those fixtures. Across their last 8 games, Scunthorpe have conceded 3 goals a game on average and they’ve also lost 10 of their last 12 away games. Oldham should dispatch of this struggling side.
The final leg of today’s four-fold accumulator is Luxembourg who’re away in Cyprus in the Nations League, they’re currently sitting top of Group 1 in League C and a win today would put them in a great position going into their last game at home to Azerbaijan. Cyprus have lost 8 of their last 9 in all competitions and haven’t scored in the group stage either. Danel Sinani has scored 3 in the group stage and scored 3 in last campaign’s Nations League too, he also scored 9 in the Europa League with Dudelange, he knows how to find the net and will be a threat for Cyprus’ vulnerable side.
The accumulator is priced at 20.82/1 with bet365 at the time of writing and looks a good bet for what looks like an average Saturday of football.
This Sunday really is super and has four excellent games on show but the focus of today’s piece is on the 14:00 and 16:30 kick off’s that feature Leicester v Wolves and Man City v Liverpool. The four teams mentioned are all expected to be battling for European spots and will be really hoping for maximum points against their nearby rivals.
Leicester host Wolves at 14:00 and are in blistering form on the back of their 4-0 stonking of Braga in the week, the 2015/16 PL winners have won their last five in all competitions and scored 14 goals in the process. Jamie Vardy has extended his incredible form by scoring 8 in his last 7 appearances too, the 33 year old Englishman seems to be improving with age and is a never ending threat for any defence.
Vardy pictured above scoring a hat-trick in Leicester’s recent 5-2 win away at Man City
Timothy Castagne arrived in the summer transfer window and made an instant impact with 3 assists and a goal from full-back in his first six appearances but is currently side-lined through injury which has made space for young Luke Thomas, he’s received two yellow cards in his three recent appearances and may be in for more of the same against Wolves’ tricky wingers.
Wolves have won 3 of their last 4 games, all of which they’ve managed to keep a clean sheet too. The exception in those games was a 1-1 draw against Newcastle where they conceded a 95th minute equaliser to break the clean sheet streak. The defensive sturdiness has been a feature of Wolves’ season so far, they’ve conceded the least goals (1.14 a game) in the PL with exception of Arsenal, the negative attached to this is that they’ve scored the least goals in the league bar the bottom four. Raul Jimenez has scored 4 of Wolves’ 7 goals this year but the offensive threat has not seemed as prominent as the previous seasons.
It’s worth noting the previous two head to head’s have ended as a 0-0 draw too.
Man City host Liverpool as the current 10th position team in the PL after their first 7 games played, they’re now unbeaten in 8 and look to be coming into some form though. City’s last loss was a 5-2 thumping by Leicester at the Etihad where Vardy scored a hat-trick and made Guardiola’s side look very vulnerable. Man City have kept 2 clean sheets in the PL this season which surprisingly trumps Liverpool who’ve only kept 1 but the defensive strength of both sides seems to have crumbled.
Liverpool have been electric in Europe this week with a 5-0 away win against highly regarded Atalanta with Diogo Jota scoring a hat-trick to take his recent tally to 6 goals in his last 4 appearances. The Reds have also scored 19 goals in their last 6 away games in all competitions which bodes well against this vulnerable looking City side.
There’s major injury problems for both sides today though with City missing Fernandinho, Aguero and Benjamin Mendy but that doesn’t touch the surface in comparison to Liverpool’s. Liverpool are without captain Virgil Van Dijk after his injury in the Merseyside Derby, Thiago is also side-lined and Fabinho was injured the week after Van Dijk was.
In recent meetings between the sides City have been dominant, Liverpool haven’t won at the Etihad in the last four games, two of which were 4-0 and 5-0 losses. If there’s a time to break the trend it definitely seems to be now.
For the two games there’ll be two bets placed separately and also placed as a small double, follow on your own accord if you’d like.
Luke Thomas to be booked is 4/1 with bet365.
Diogo Jota to score, Liverpool to win and Ruben Dias to be carded is 18/1.
The Merseyside Derby is one of the most eagerly anticipated derbies worldwide and today’s clash could be one of the most exciting ones in years. Everton are currently sitting top of the Premier League table with 12 points from the 12 available and have looked unstoppable going forward, the only other unbeaten team is currently Aston Villa who have a game in hand but inflicted a frightening 7-2 win against reigning PL champions, Liverpool.
Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool were on the end of that drubbing by Aston Villa and haven’t looked so easily exploited in years, the defensive line that has brought so much success looks to be finally showing it’s cracks and Alisson’s absence in goal was a clear problem too- he’s also missing for today. Fortunately, those three points were their first that they’ve dropped this season, the Reds have beaten Arsenal, Leeds and Chelsea already so that freak result could be brushed aside.
Mohamed Salah has continued the remarkable form he’s kept up for three campaigns now with 5 goals in his first 4 PL appearances this season, in his Liverpool career he’s played 9,378 PL minutes (roughly 104 games), he’s scored 78 goals and contributed a further 35 assists and the Egyptian doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Sadio Mane was diagnosed with COVID-19 on the 2nd of October which makes him available for today’s game after his 2-week quarantine and the Senegalese winger has bagged three in his three games so far too; they’re the two danger men as usual.
Mohamed Salah pictured above scoring the first goal in Liverpool’s 4-3 victory against Leeds on the opening day
Liverpool also conceded a total of 33 PL goals last season and they’ve leaked 11 within their first four league games this time around, with the prowess of Everton at the minute- that’s a massive worry.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is the name on English football fans lips due to the 23-year-old Englishman scoring 6 goals in his 4 league appearances so far, he’s also scored 10 in 7 across all competitions and scored on his England debut in mid-week. The only way is up for this seemingly natural goalscorer. James Rodriguez’ signing looked to be a gamble after years of injury woes since his outstanding 2014 World Cup, but has taken the league by storm with 3 goals and a couple of assists in his first four games for Everton, he was previously managed by Ancelotti at Real Madrid who really seems to get a fine tune out of the Colombian; he seems to be setting an early standard for the PFA player of the year award.
James Rodriguez pictured above after scoring his second goal against Brighton in their 4-2 win on the 3rd of October
The glaring problem with Everton this season has been the 5 goals they’ve conceded so far. In their two home wins they scored 9 goals but also conceded 4 across their games against Brighton and West Brom. Brighton have started the season positively, but the goals conceded against West Brom simply must be looked at as a disappointment and an opportunity for Liverpool.
Lucas Digne, Yerri Mina, Andre Gomes, Seamus Coleman and most notably, Allan were all injury doubts but have all been cleared as fit to play which allows the Toffees a full squad to select from with the exception of Mason Holgate who is still side-lined. Alisson continues to be Liverpool’s main injury worry but Naby Keita (COVID-19) and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee) will not be in the squad either.
In recent times this fixture has been a snooze fest with the last three head to head’s at Goodison Park finishing 0-0, seven of the last eight there have also finished as a draw with six of them finishing with under 2.5 goals.
Everton have also won 7 straight games in a row; this is the first time they’ve done this since 1894! The Toffees haven’t beaten Liverpool in their last 22 meetings, but you’d have to look back EXACTLY 10 years to this day to find the last time they won against the Reds.
This game is a must-watch with the red-hot Everton side at the moment and the possibly vulnerable Liverpool but of course the Champions cannot be underestimated, if you were looking for a bet for the game- here is a couple of plays:
Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score, Mohamed Salah to score and full-time result DRAW 40/1 with bet365.
Dominic Calvert Lewin to score and both teams to score is 2/1 with bet365.
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After a torrid year for the world and a stunted season which saw Liverpool walk away cosy winners of the 19/20 PL season and their first PL trophy, the sense of normality will hope to be restored this season with a first ever September start for the English top tier.
The conclusion of the relegation fight came down to the final day with three possible relegation candidates and two spots to fill, Aston Villa needed a single point to stay up and they managed to do so which sent Watford and Bournemouth packing despite Bournemouth’s conclusive 3-1 win away in Everton on the final day. Norwich were 14 points adrift and didn’t stand a chance.
The Championship was won by Leeds which looked a formality for much of the year, they finished 10 points clear and confirmed the clear promise they’ve shown in recent times, West Brom also filled the other automatic promotion spot. Fulham beat Cardiff 3-2 on aggregate in the play-off semi-finals and went on to beat Brentford in extra time in the final to push themselves back into the top tier after only one season away.
Leeds celebrating their title win in last season’s Championship with Marcelo Bielsa pictured centrally.
As it seems every year, the difficulty of predicting the outcome of this season has increased even more, the newly promoted teams look more than capable of mixing it with the high finishing regulars and it will inevitably lead to an exciting year of football.
ARSENAL – Predicted finish 5th
Mikel Arteta’s up and coming Arsenal side finally seem as if they have a future to look forward to, the tactics that the Spaniard has embedded in the Gunners, especially against the top teams, seem to be shutting the doors and getting some defensive stability that they’ve lacked so much in the last few seasons. In the transfer window they’ve picked up some much-needed PL experience with former Chelsea man, Willian. The Brazilian played 237 games for Chelsea and with their huge influx of signings, a move was the right decision. Gabriel Magalhaes cost a pretty penny at £27,000,000 from Lille but he’s shown that he’s a serious prospect and fills a position that Arsenal have been desperately trying to fill for a while. In the last two seasons he’s helped Lille qualify for the Champions League after their seven-year absence from the competition.
Arsenal’s team is very clearly in development and they’re undoubtedly a team to watch in coming years, but they do lack the cutting edge offensively. Pierre Emerick Aubameyang is one of the leagues best attacking threats but unfortunately without his presence this Arsenal team look like they may struggle for goals. Bukayo Saka has burst onto the scene in the last 12 months and is expected to have another brilliant season but the lack of strength in depth up top could well be Arsenal’s major downfall. The likes of record signing Nicolas Pepe and Alexandre Lacazette both have a touch of class about them but they were not vital figures in Arsenal’s last campaign, they will both need to step up in what’s tipped to be a difficult season.
Aubameyang (Left) pictured above with Saka (right)
ASTON VILLA – Predicted finish 18th
Aston Villa hadn’t won in 10 with 4 games to go at the end of the 19/20 campaign but pulled off the unexpected with 8 points from that possible last 12, including a gutsy win against Arsenal. Dean Smith’s side have acquired Matty Cash for a £14,000,000 deal that could rise to £16,000,000 from Nottingham Forest, the 23 year old can play anywhere down the right side and his versatility will be ideal for a Villa side that have very minimal offensive options.
Jack Grealish has been the target of relentless transfer embargo but the born and raised Brummy looks as if he’ll be staying in his hometown for now, at least. Grealish at the age of 24 received his first England call up this month and is finally having his consistent good performances rewarded. In the 19/20 season he set a new record for being fouled, he was fouled more than any player in PL history in one game (9 vs Chelsea) and he was also fouled 40+ times more than anyone else in the duration of the season. Villa conceded the most goals in the PL last season (1.76 per game) which cannot be ignored but the glaring issue is undoubtedly in the final third. Grealish was Villa’s top scorer with 8 goals followed by Trezeguet with 6 and they’re going to have to find significant improvement in that area, hence the record signing of Ollie Watkins from Brentford who scored 26 goals last season, but he is a bit of a gamble on his maiden season in the Premier League- time will tell.
BRIGHTON – Predicted finish 15th
Graham Potter’s Brighton have completed some shrewd business this transfer window, the Seagulls signed Adam Lallana on a free transfer and Dutch international Joel Veltman on an absolute steal for a deal believed to be worth around £750,000. Veltman has made 22 appearances for the Netherlands and can also play full back if required, he’s got plenty of Champions League experience and he should partner Lewis Dunk at the back, Dunk has been linked with many top clubs throughout the window but looks as if he’ll be staying. Brighton managed to hold onto most of their squad with exceptions of Aaron Mooy who left for the Chinese League and Shane Duffy who joined Celtic. Potter gets a fine tune out of this Brighton team when they’re on song and the defensive stability they look to have gained could really benefit them this season, 15th may be slightly unfair but other teams have a fair bit more potential.
BURNLEY – Predicted finish 10th
Burnley in their ongoing four-year spell in the Premier League haven’t had a serious threat of relegation, they finished 16th in the 16/17 season but followed that in 17/18 with a 7th place finish and a spot in Europe. The yo-yo continued with a drop down to 15th the following year and finally they finished mid-pack in 10th last season. Chris Wood played 2436 minutes last season which works out as roughly 28 games and he scored 14 goals, a very impressive average of over a goal every 2 games, should the New Zealand striker stay fit- he could very well press for 20 this year. Nick Pope and James Tarkowski have been staples in the Burnley backline that has brought them so much success and has also struck the attention of Gareth Southgate and the England squad too. Pope kept 15 clean sheets last season and was behind only Ederson for the PL golden glove. This Burnley side continually go under the radar and will cause problems for every team they face but they do lack a playmaker to provide chances on a consistent basis, a mid-table finish is expected.
Wood pictured above scoring a penalty against Wolves on July 15th 2020 to equalise iin the 96th minute
CHELSEA – Predicted finish 4th
The Chelsea team of 19/20 is now in the distant past as the transfer ban has been lifted and Chelsea have let rip in this transfer window spending big money and picking up several big names. Kai Havertz, Timo Werner, Hakim Ziyech, Ben Chilwell, Thiago Silva and Malang Sarr have been acquired to bolster what was an already a sturdy top 6 squad. The backing of Frank Lampard is quite eye-opening, and he’s made the necessary signings that Chelsea have quite clearly needed. Timo Werner has already scored his first Chelsea goal in pre-season and Havertz after weeks of speculation finally completed his deal in the first few days of this month. The offensive threat of Chelsea this year is bound to be never ending and goals will not be a problem, the real issue lies defensively. Kepa last season accrued the stat of “worst statistical goalkeeper in PL history~ and the world’s most expensive keeper’s game was littered with mistakes. There hasn’t been any big market moves from Chelsea to sign another goalkeeper and that could be a possible downfall, the Blues had conceded an average of 1.02 or lower for the three previous seasons but their end-of-season average was 1.42 last year. It’s silly to expect a massive influx of money to win Chelsea the league or make them a title challenging team, as it was last season this will be another season of building a future under Lampard, saying that- top 4 is a must.
Werner celebrating with his team after scoring his debut goal against Brighton in pre-season
CRYSTAL PALACE – Predicted finish 17th
Last season Palace were fortunate to have had a good Christmas period because their last 9 games of the season resulted in them getting one point, they also only scored in 2 of those games. Roy Hodgson’s side scored the second least goals in the PL with 31 last season, the only team that scored less were Norwich and they finished 14 points adrift of safety. Eberechi Eze was recruited for a £20,000,000 fee and looks a nice option after a breakout season at mid-table Championship side QPR. The 23-year-old attacking midfielder scored 14 goals and added a further 8 assists, he will be dangerous alongside Wilfred Zaha who by his standards, underperformed last year. The lack of defensive reinforcement in the transfer window is going to prove a real issue for Palace this season as all the surrounding teams have spent big. There’s a level of stubbornness that this Crystal Palace side have that may be able to keep them in the PL but this season is going to be very difficult if they perform even half as bad as the last quarter of the 19/20 season.
EVERTON – Predicted finish 7th
Carlo Ancelotti has worked absolute wonders in the transfer window by signing Allan from Napoli and 2014’s World Cup Golden Boot winner James Rodriguez. The Colombian was brought in on a £22,000,000 deal but he’s only made 28 league appearances in his last two years because he’s been riddled with injury, if he was to return to his previous levels and match sharpness then this deal could be one of the bargains of the window. Adding those two to the rest of the already strong Everton squad looks to given them the necessary strength to challenge for Europe this season, Lucas Digne has consistently performed since his arrival from Barcelona and Richarlison has scored 13 goals in both of his seasons at Everton and he’s still only 23. Dominic Calvert-Lewin had a brilliant run in the middle of the season too and hit double digits, having a player like James in midfield will only add to fuel to the fire he was on last season. The one downside is, the Toffees always seem to spend in the transfer windows and the money hasn’t ever quite looked justified. The squad they’ve put together this season though, is more than capable.
👌 | “There is a key question when you talk to a player: do you really want to come? These three players we signed simply answered yes, full stop. I want to have players that have a desire to come to this club."
Fulham bounce straight back to the PL after their play-off final victory over 3rd placed Brentford, they won with a brace in extra-time from full-back Joe Bryan and gave Scott Parker a dream start in his first managerial season. The last time Fulham were in the top flight they spent plenty of money and attempted to play their attacking style of football which was inevitably their downfall, they conceded 81 goals in the 38 game season which was the most out of anyone in the league. Parker hasn’t made any miraculous signings this window, but Harrison Reed’s deal was made permanent, Mario Lemina has been brought in on loan and Antonee Robinson was purchased on a cut price deal from financially depleted Wigan. Alexander Mitrovic scored 11 goals in his first PL spell with Fulham, he scored 26 last season in the Championship and also won the Golden Boot, the Serbian is getting better by the year and his brutish approach makes it difficult for any defender to defend against him. Fulham’s did also score the least out of the newly promoted sides, but they’ve been notorious over the years for their home record, that should keep them away from the bottom.
LEEDS – Predicted finish 16th
The 19/20 Championship winners Leeds stormed the league and put any doubts behind them by staying in the title fight the whole season without any real slip ups, they eventually won the league by 10 points and Marcelo Bielsa’s impressive management finally paid dividends. As most newly promoted teams seem to do in current times, Leeds have smashed their record transfer fee by bringing in Spaniard, Rodrigo. Valencia are currently undergoing some serious financial grief following the global pandemic, so they’ve been forced to let go of their players, saying that Rodrigo only scored 4 goals last season and the signing raised a few questions. Leeds also secured a permanent deal for Helder Costa and extended their loan of Jack Harrison once again. Ben White was on loan at Leeds from Brighton last season and they’ve been unable to keep him, he was a core member of their squad last season and played every game of their Championship season, he could be a loss despite Robin Koch being recruited as a possible replacement. This Leeds team should undoubtedly do the best out of the promoted teams but there’s doubt surrounding their quality at this level, relegation shouldn’t be close, but the squad doesn’t seem capable of getting to mid-table.
LEICESTER – Predicted finish 8th
Leicester looked to have a top 4 position in the bag with roughly 10 games to go at the end of last season but after getting only 9 points from their final 27 available, they dropped out of the Champions League spots quite tamely. Jamie Vardy won the Golden Boot last season and has scored 96 goals in the last 5 PL seasons he’s taken part in, he’s always going to be a reliable source of goals- especially with the surrounding creativity of James Maddison, Youri Tielemans and Harvey Barnes. The Foxes lost a core member of their defence in Ben Chilwell but instantly reinvested the funds in Belgian full-back Timothy Castagne from an Atalanta side that challenged for the Serie A title last season and looked one of the most promising teams in Europe; they also only invested £22,000,000 which isn’t even half of the £50,000,000 they received for Chilwell. After the ending of last season, you’d have expected Brendan Rodgers to be searching for some big reinforcements but there has not been enough. Leicester will be in Europe this season and the lack of depth they’ve got will surely hinder their league chances, it’s hard to see the same start of the season for them this year and a finish outside of the European places looks an unfortunate expectation.
19/20 Golden Boot winner- Jamie Vardy
LIVERPOOL – Predicted finish 2nd
19/20’s PL Champions Liverpool set a standard that was unmatched throughout the whole of the year, by the time football was put on hold they were over 20 points ahead and finished the season with a 18 point cushion, the second highest in PL history. The Liverpool squad from last year was more than capable of walking away with the league but only one signing in full-back Tsimikas hasn’t added much to the already superb squad. Mane, Salah and Firmino have ripped the PL apart for the past three seasons and have been involved in 71, 87 and 57 goals respectively. The trio look simply unstoppable when they’re performing and it’s very unlikely, they’ll slow down this year. Robertson and Alexander-Arnold contributed heavily to Liverpool’s offensive genius with consistent assists from left and right back and once again it’ll continue. It’s very hard to know whether Liverpool will be firing on all cylinders like last season but there’s nothing obvious stopping them having another exceptional season, they’re an almost guaranteed top two if they play half as good as last season.
MANCHESTER CITY – Predicted finish 1st
Manchester City were left in Liverpool’s wake for the majority of the year and they were unable to even scratch the surface of the gap that was built up so quickly. David Silva signed for Real Sociedad after a decade at the Etihad, Leroy Sane also left for Bayern Munich for roughly £55,000,000 but he didn’t take a huge part in their previous campaign. Nathan Ake was signed from relegated side Bournemouth for a £41,000,000 fee to bolster what has become quite a shaky defensive line. There’s absolutely no doubting City’s offensive prowess, they scored over 100 goals in the PL last season and Kevin De Bruyne was head and shoulders above the league, he won the PFA player of the year and scored 13 goals alongside his 20 assists- the Belgian is bound to do the same this season. Sergio Aguero was injured for the majority of last season so he only played 1449 minutes, he scored 16 goals in those minutes which averages out as a goal every 90.5 minutes, the Argentinian has struggled for fitness in recent seasons but when available, he’s a guaranteed source of goals. Raheem Sterling’s 55 goals across the last 3 seasons has proven how clinical he can be, the English winger has really flourished under Pep Guardiola and with the service he regularly receives from midfield he’s going to continue to progress. This City side simply have too much offensively, and they will be much closer to Liverpool, they could even pinch the title.
Kevin De Bruyne pictured with his PFA Player of the Year trophy
MANCHESTER UNITED – Predicted finish 3rd
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s United are on the rise, Bruno Fernandes made an instant impact after his arrival from Sporting Lisbon last season and contributed 8 goals and 7 assists in his 14 games he played. The rise continues with other offensive players, Anthony Martial scored 23 goals in all competitions and Marcus Rashford scored 22- this is the first time two United players have scored more than 20 in one season since 2010 when Dimitar Berbatov and Javier Hernandez did. Lastly, Mason Greenwood has taken the league by storm at the age of 17, he scored 10 goals in his debut year which was simply mesmerising to watch as he plays as if he’s been playing at the top level for years. The Red Devils have added Donny Van de Beek to the midfield that was already littered with quality and will merely increase the promise of the team. The United defence is the slight worry, despite only conceding 2 less than City and 3 less than Liverpool, David De Gea is looking more mistake prone by the season but United have Dean Henderson available after his superb season at Sheffield United. If United’s defence were to trim out their calamity of errors that regularly see them drop silly points and even possibly finally secure a deal for Jadon Sancho, this team has the ability to push for that top two.
NEWCASTLE – Predicted finish 12th
The Magpies have been the centre of the news over the last few months because they were subject to a Saudi takeover which would’ve seen them become the richest club in the world, their owners are worth a staggering £320,000,000,000 which is roughly 13x the size of City’s owners. The takeover did fall through but Steve Bruce has done some very tidy business by signing the Bournemouth duo of Calum Wilson and Ryan Fraser, in the 18/19 season they scored 21 goals and got 23 assists between them which are insane numbers for a side that finished 14th. Danny Rose was on loan here last season, but he has since returned to Tottenham which allowed a gap for Jamal Lewis to be signed from relegated Norwich on a £15,000,000 deal. The 22-year-old full back has plenty of top-level years ahead of him and he was a shining light in a bleak Norwich season. Newcastle’s problems in recent times have been their lack of offensive threat and with Steve Bruce as manager it’s hard to see a change in that, he plays a very defensive style which hasn’t been seen to full effect. Martin Dubravka in goal has been exceptional since his signing from Sparta Prague, he made the most saves in the PL last year. Newcastle’s signings are perfectly suited to the positions they required improvement; they could have a good season but it’s hard to see it happen under Steve Bruce.
Wilson and Fraser pictured above during their time at Bournemouth
SHEFFIELD UNITED – Predicted finish 14th
Chris Wilder’s team shocked the footballing world by almost securing a European spot in their first season back in the Premier League but it was foiled by a stumble at the end of the season after the resumption of football, they won 3 of their last 8 games. The squad that Sheffield United have is not typically a PL standard but the way in which Wilder’s team defend and perform consistently caused many a problem for every team in the league. The Blades unfortunately lost a key member of their squad in Dean Henderson who returned to his parent club Manchester United but they raided Bournemouth for Aaron Ramsdale who was so impressive in his first PL season, he should fill the void. Jayden Bogle and Max Lowe were Derby’s full-backs last season and have been signed in a double deal and will bolster the wing back options that were so vital in the system last year. Sheffield United scored 39 goals in a 38-game season last year which was the joint fourth lowest, they haven’t signed any forwards during this transfer window which is questionable considering the lack of goals. It’s to be expected that the defence will hold up under Wilder’s organised tactics but the goalscoring droughts will see this Sheffield United team fall further down the table this year.
New signings Lowe (left in both) and Bogle (right in both) pictured signing for Sheffield United
SOUTHAMPTON – Predicted finish 11th
Ralph Hasenhüttl’s job security was seriously under fire at the start of last season where Southampton started horrendously and conceded 21 goals in their first 6 home games, one of which was a 9-0 home defeat against Leicester which is the largest home loss in the history of the top tier of English football. Danny Ings revitalised the Saints and finished the year on 22 league goals, he had previously shown potential in the league, but it was his first year that was injury free and he really blossomed. Kyle Walker-Peters was secured as part of an exchange with Pierre Hojberg which remains to be seen whether that’s the right decision, Hojberg was a key member of the squad and the club captain. This Southampton team haven’t gained a huge amount this transfer window but they’ve got a fantastic manager in Hasenhüttl, providing Ings can stay fit this team will have a very similar season, if Ings was to have trouble with injury again, they could plummet.
TOTTENHAM – Predicted finish 6th
Harry Kane’s Spurs are going to undoubtedly go under the radar this season, the offensive pairing of him and Heung Min Son will cause problems for any defence they face and will more than likely both score double digits. Harry Kane has suffered injury problems in recent seasons but has scored a minimum of 17 goals in each of the last six seasons, providing he stays fit he’s going to be a real contender for the golden boot, as always. Spurs lost Jan Vertonghen to Benfica after an 8-year spell in North London but they’ve been playing four at the back consistently under Mourinho so the loss will not be as noticeable. Matt Doherty was brought in from Wolves for a very cheap fee of £15,000,000, the Irishman has contributed 16 goals over the last two seasons from defence and will be a great attacking option that will more than likely provide plenty of chances for Kane up top. This Spurs squad has plenty of potential and heaps of depth in comparison to recent years, but they’ve failed to purchase a back-up striker for Kane once again. Fernando Llorente was the last striker Spurs purchased and that was over 3 years ago, the risk of Kane getting injured can put an instant stop to this team and it’s happened on a few occasions in recent times. There’s plenty of opportunity for Spurs to get heavily involved amongst the top 6 but the downfall will once again be the lack of striking back-up should Kane get injured.
Kane (Left) and Son (right) pictured above
WEST BROM – Predicted finish 20th
West Brom claimed an automatic promotion spot by 2 points after Brentford’s final day slip up against relegation battling Barnsley. Slaven Bilic’s side look the weakest of a very strong Premier League line up this year, they conceded the most goals out of the newly promoted sides in the Championship last season and have not signed any defenders of real significance. Cedric Kipre has come in on a cheap deal from Wigan to provide some depth in the central positions, but the lack of an experienced quality PL standard defender will really be noticeable. There is positives in the Brom camp though after they secured the permanent deals of Matheus Pereira and Grady Diangana, the latter was much to the disappointment of his former club West Ham- he was rated very highly by the fans and even some of the West Ham players have spoken about how poor the decision to sell him is. West Brom’s top goalscorer in the league last season was a tie between Charlie Austin and Hal Robson-Kanu, both of which only scored 10 goals. Austin was prolific in his younger years at QPR but in recent times hasn’t been as good as he once was and he’s not going to be up to the forever rising standard of the Premier League. It would be very impressive to see West Brom stay up with the squad they’ve got but the same was said about Sheffield United last season, could it happen? It’s a huge longshot.
WEST HAM – Predicted finish 13th
David Moyes’ West Ham have come under fire in recent weeks for the previously mentioned sale of Grady Diangana, he was one of their top prospects and had returned after a year on loan looking as if he’s ready for the step up, only to be sold. The West Ham offensive line was firing at the end of last season with the likes of Michail Antonio scoring 8 in their final 7 games. Tomas Soucek has been secured on a £15,000,000 deal from Slavia Prague and the big Czech made a significant difference whilst pairing Declan Rice in the middle of the park, he had 20 shots in his 13 appearances and scored 3 goals. Antonio had the most shots for the team last season with 68 and at the rate Soucek was firing, he wouldn’t be far off- he’s lethal from corners and will cause problems for everyone. West Ham’s consistent goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski had trouble with injury last season and it was very noticeable when he was missing, this side also have a huge lack of depth in the defensive areas, it’s surprising that Moyes hasn’t been hunting for defenders and that’s likely to be a problem for a team that’s usually prone to injury. The stubbornness of the London side has continued to keep them in the PL in recent times and Soucek will have a great season scoring some very important goals to keep them sturdy.
Tomas Soucek pictured above scoring the first of West Ham’s three goals against Chelsea in their 3-2 win in July
WOLVES – Predicted finish 9th
Nuno Espirito Santo’s Wolves have finished in 7th and secured back to back Europa league spots in their first two seasons back after their promotion from the Championship and have proven themselves as a top side, regularly taking points off of the big guns and being a real nuisance to play against. Raul Jimenez has scored 30 goals in his first two PL seasons and contributed a further 17 assists, the Mexican arrived for a £30,000,000 fee after his initial loan and has been the main talisman for such an exciting side. Unfortunately, Matt Doherty has been sold to Spurs and his consistent offensive contribution will be sorely missed but Wolves have made a loan move for Lyon full-back Marcal who was injured for the majority of the season but took part in their Champions League run in Lisbon. Adama Traore was a regular pain for full-backs last season too, he completed the most take-on’s in the league with 183 and was over 60 ahead of third on that leader board- he was rumoured to join a variety of top teams but he’s stayed. Captain Conor Coady recently had his first ever England call-up and is getting the recognition he deserves after playing every single minute for the last two seasons, something that’s quite unprecedented in today’s high paced modern game. Wolves will undoubtedly cause problems for the big teams once again but the similar teams surrounding them have made significant inroads into improving their squads, Wolves haven’t done huge amounts. Competitive but a slight drop.
TOP GOALSCORER
The top goalscorer in the PL has been a very tightly fought trophy in recent times but providing they both stay fit; Harry Kane and Sergio Aguero will be right up there at the business end of the season. The two of them are so important to their sides and have the raw talent to finish a ball in any given situation, both also suffered injuries last season that really hindered their challenges. Aubameyang is not to be written off either as he’s the only true source of goals at Arsenal.
PFA Player of the Year
The way in which Kevin De Bruyne effortlessly went about his usual game last season is simply insane, the Belgian is the obvious favourite to repeat last year’s feat of winning this award and would be the first player to win it back to back since Cristiano Ronaldo in 06/07 and 07/08.
PFA Young Player of the Year
This is always an exciting award to watch throughout the season and this year’s main candidates will be Mason Greenwood, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Bukayo Saka. Mason Greenwood burst into the league last season and hit double digits for goals at the age of 17, Trent Alexander-Arnold is already regarded as one of the best right backs in the world but at such a young age he’s still progressing and it’s yet to be seen quite how good he can be. Bukayo Saka at the age of 18 has proven to be hugely versatile, he’s played at full-back, on the wing and even just in behind the striker- he’s got serious potential at a growing Arsenal side, he could be the man to side with.
I hope you enjoyed. Check out my Twitter for weekly football predictions and thoughts.
Man United have made a huge U-Turn this season and have quickly become one of the most exciting teams in Europe to watch, in the last 2 weeks their antepost odds to win the Premier League title next season have slashed from 33/1 to just 8/1.
The Red Devils drew their first game after the resumption in a cagey affair at Mourinho’s Spurs but ever since have been absolutely electric. They’ve won their last 4 games convincingly and became the first team in Premier League history to win four 4 games in a row by a margin of three or more goals. The force of Greenwood, Rashford, Martial and Fernandes is taking the league by storm; Fernandes in his first 10 Premier League appearances has scored 7 goals and added a further 6 assists, simply outrageous.
Mason Greenwood had a substantial amount of excitement on his name prior to his initial league debut and has started United’s last 4 league games and he’s scored 4 goals in them too. The threat is throughout the whole of the frontline and today’s opponents Southampton have a similar unstoppable frontline despite it being just one man.
Danny Ings has managed to stay fit all season and has carried Southampton to safety in mid-table with his 19 league goals in 34 appearances, he’s only 4 goals away from Jamie Vardy on 23 and seems sure to prove a threat again tonight. Southampton have scored in 15 of their 17 league away games this season, the only two games they haven’t scored in have been their defeat on the first day of the season at the hands of Burnley and a 4-0 drubbing at Liverpool. Their away form is the fifth best in the league and the recent win against Man City has merely reiterated that they’re in top form.
Man United have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 9 home fixtures, but the other two games they conceded 2 in, one was the recent 5-2 win at Bournemouth and also a 2-0 home defeat to Burnley. It’s clear that United are playing out of their skin and a win would amazingly move them up to 3rd and really get a strong hold on a top 4 finish this season.
There’s some minor value in the betting markets, here’s an 8/1 chance.
Price accurate as of 7:45PM 13/07/20
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West Ham host Chelsea in an all London affair that in recent times has been a very cagey tussle with the last 5 head to head meetings finishing with under 3 goals. The Hammers won the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge with an Aaron Cresswell goal proving to be the difference and sets West Ham up with an opportunity to do the double over Chelsea for the first time since 2002.
Since the return, West Ham haven’t scored a goal. The losses of sidelined Sebastian Haller and Robert Snodgrass have been instrumental in the lack of goalscoring threat West Ham have shown, Haller has resumed training this week but David Moyes has said he’s unlikely to play today, Snodgrass is still injured. The goal drought isn’t due to misfortune, the Hammers have only had 4 shots on target in their last 180 minutes of football and haven’t really got a real back-up for Haller, Antonio has had to fill the void and doesn’t look as good in a central role.
West Ham have collected 5 out of their last 33 available points which sees the East Londoners sit in 17th position, level on points with 18th and 19th placed Bournemouth and Aston Villa. The points that have been won have all been in home fixtures, the home figures of 5 points in their last 15 at home do not sound half as bad but the chances of a win today based on recent form are quite slim.
Angelo Ogbonna has been injured in recent weeks too and he was only fit enough to make the bench in their 2-0 loss against Tottenham but it looks as if he’ll be ready to start today which will allow Declan Rice to move into his usual role in midfield, which is a plus for Moyes’ men.
Chelsea continue to defy expectation with their youthful team lead by Lampard, they’re on a 6 win streak in all competitions with impressive victories in the FA Cup over Liverpool and Leicester alongside the recent league win over Man City. The Blues have only conceded 2 in that streak and their strength this season has been in their away performances- they’ve managed to get 50% of their points this season away from home and also have the third best away record in the league.
Christian Pulisic hasn’t played as many minutes as he’d have liked this season after struggling with fitness and injuries but has contributed 7 goals and 2 assists in his 1194 league minutes, he’s averaging a goal contribution every 132 minutes which is exceptional for a 21 year old in his first season of English football; he’s also scored 5 of his 7 on the road.
Tammy Abraham started the season with a flourish in his debut season playing first team football for Chelsea he scored 10 in his first 12 league appearances but has only scored 3 more in the 18 game weeks after. He has only played 57 minutes of the last 7 games due to an injury but he did play a full 90 in the cup against Leicester which gives the impression he’ll be ready to start his first league game since the first day of February.
The bookmakers correctly have Chelsea as odds on favourites for today but West Ham’s usual stubbornness at home is not to be underestimated. Chelsea will expect to get the three points against the relegation threatened side and I’d also side with them to do the job.
Chelsea to win is generally available at 4/6
Chelsea to win 2-0 is generally available at 8/1
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The inevitable 2019/20 Premier League champions Liverpool need one more win to secure their first ever PL title but they could also claim the title should Man City drop any points and tonight City are away at Chelsea.
Funnily enough if City were to win today, they’re hosting Liverpool on July 2nd in a game where Liverpool could lift the trophy at the Etihad, the game itself would be a real spectacle for any football fan.
Today’s hosts Chelsea have only had the one game since the resumption of football, a 2-1 away win at Aston Villa where two goals in quick succession finished a comeback after being comfortably on top. The Blues home form has not been the force it once was, they’ve lost 33% of their home league games this year and won 46% of them. In comparison, over the past 3 PL seasons Chelsea have lost 12% of their home fixtures, it’s a pretty worrying drop but the league position of 4th doesn’t share the same worry. In the 30 league fixtures this season Chelsea have also only managed to keep 6 clean sheets which again is a fair bit lower than previous seasons.
Man City have looked electric in their 2 games back with a convincing 3-0 win against Arsenal, followed by a 5-0 demolition job over Burnley. Sergio Aguero suffered what looks to be a season ending knee injury that he’s had surgery for in Barcelona this week and will be a real loss for the remainder of the season but will allow the role to be filled by Gabriel Jesus on a regular basis. City have been as threatening as ever offensively this season but the slips have been defensively, they’ve scored an average of 2.33 goals a game away from home in PL matches and seen a total of 3.6 in total if you include the conceded goals too.
Man City haven’t drawn away from home in their last 14 competitive away games either, and in recent domestic meetings between today’s sides there hasn’t been a draw since January of 2015 where both meetings that season were draws. The last Premier League meeting at Stamford Bridge was a 2-0 win for Chelsea where Kante scored and similarly, the Frenchman scored in the recent 2-1 away loss in November at the Etihad.
City’s challenge for the title will more than likely be a pipedream but they’ll look to finish the season strongly and carry the momentum into their 20/21 challenge. It is likely that they’ll have too much for a young Chelsea side, even without Aguero.
The bookmakers have priced Man City to win at around 3/4 which could even be considered generous if you look at the way they disposed of their previous opposition.
Man City to win is generally available at 3/4
N’Golo Kante to score anytime is generally available at 10/1 – considering his form against City this could be a fairly sized price single.
If you were to double the selections together it’s 33/1.
It’s the final day of this year’s Royal Ascot festival and the focus is on the St James’ Palace Stakes where Pinatubo and Wichita re-oppose after the 2000 Guineas which saw Kameko win infront of Wichita in 2nd and Pinatubo in 3rd. Kameko’s form is vital to this race as this race regularly features horses that compete in that race as it’s over the same distance with the same age horses at the top level. The 2000 Guineas was run on the 6th of June and Kameko set the record for the quickest time it’s ever been finished in, beating Mister Baileys record that had been held since 1994 where Jason Weaver was on board- the record was beaten by 36 tenths of a second.
Pinatubo is the expected favourite based on his outstanding 2 year old form, the Godolphin colt won 6 of 6 last season including the Chesham Stakes, Dewhurst Stakes and a Group 1 at the Curragh. The only blemish on his perfect career was his 3rd in the 2000 Guineas which was arguably unsuited on the good to firm ground, all of Pinatubo’s winning has been done between good and soft. The sole Godolphin representative in the race is hoping to follow in the steps of 2017 winner Barney Roy and Sharmadal in 2005 who hold the quickest times for this race, notably Sharmadal is Pinatubo’s sire and after seeing the speed the 2000 Guineas was completed in- Pinatubo could be looking to take his sire’s record today. Deserved favourite.
Wichita is one of two horses that have finished ahead of Pinatubo and after a 7 length win at Newmarket a lot was expected for the Dewhurst Stakes where Pinatubo eventually finished 4 ¾ lengths ahead. If you skip 8 months ahead, last week’s 2000 Guineas was a surprise reversal of form where Frankie Dettori took the ride and only got caught close home by Kameko. Aidan O’Brien has won 2 of the last 5 runnings of this race where today’s jockey Ryan Moore was on board aswell, Moore was also the winning jockey for Circus Maximus’ success in this race last year. O’Brien is the record holder for the most wins in this race (8) and has 3 of today’s 7 entries. After the 2000 Guineas, this promising colt stands a very good chance if replicating that form.
The big unknown for the race is the chance of the Gosden yard, Palace Pier. This Kingman colt brings the only unbeaten record into the race and has shown very impressive turns of foot towards the end of his races winning by a minimum of 3 ¾ lengths in each of his 3 victories. On his reappearance he was introduced at the highest level he’s run at so far and cosily won over a mile at Newcastle’s AW course, the worry is whether he can transfer that form back to turf. The colt hasn’t raced at the highest level yet and this is considerably deeper waters but with the services of Dettori on board he’ll stand his best chance. The win at Newcastle he took a while to get the better of Acquitted who went off 6/1 for the first race of the festival but didn’t look right and trailed in last. The 4/1 rough price for this colt is too short for me.
Threat is Oisin Murphy’s mount who had a fantastic day yesterday with 3 places and a win after a couple of average days by his standard prior to that. Hannon’s horse has been tried mostly at 6f so this step up to the extended 7 furlongs will be his longest trip yet. The Juddmonte Stakes was the last time we saw Threat on a track over what looked an inadequate 6f, leading to believe that a step up is required, the lack of a recent run could be a problem though, he’s one of two in this race that hasn’t had a pipe opener this season. The only time Murphy has been on board ended in a victory over 6f at York too, it’s not ideal to be coming into a race fresh when it’s of this calibre.
Oisin Murphy pictured aboard Sir Busker after his win in Wednesday’s Royal Hunt Cup
Clive Cox’s runner Positive has won twice and lost twice so far and both losses have been behind Pinatubo but in August last year he did beat the 2000 Guineas winner, Kameko. 10 months has passed since that win and it’s hard to hang onto that form when Kameko has improved every single race and we haven’t seen much of this colt. Clive Cox’s horses look to be running well after the resumption though with 3 winners from his last 7, one of them being the Commonwealth Cup winner Golden Horde who blitzed the field yesterday afternoon. It’s hard to speak highly of the chances of this horse especially since he’s the other horse without a recent run.
Arizona has been handed to Sean Levey for the first time due to Ryan Moore jumping ship to Wichita and he hasn’t had a great Ascot so far- he’s only finished in the top half of the field in 2 of his 10 rides so far. Arizona beat Threat in last season’s Coventry Stakes over 6f and was also only 2 lengths behind Pinatubo last October when he was infront of Wichita too. The reason behind the rough 22/1 price is the unproven 1 mile trip, he’s had 2 tries over it so far and finished 5th in America when he went off 2/1 favourite and a 19 ½ length 11th in the 2000 Guineas. His sister was a 8.5f winner in the US so there’s stamina in the family, it’d be a shock to see him win but he could get involved at a price.
Finally the outsider and another O’Brien trained horse Royal Dornoch could be the pace option to set the race up for Wichita. He, like a few others, beat Kameko in his 2 year old season but it was over the mile so the form is arguably not to be ignored, the race prior to that he finished stone last behind Threat so the inconsistency is there. His return finished in a 19 length defeat to Kameko where he finished one place ahead of Arizona, not much to be expected after that effort and he hasn’t really improved since his wins.
PINATUBO looks to return to winning ways and looks ready to do so, available at around 13/8 at the time of writing and looks worth snapping up. The SP favourite of this race has also won 6 out of the last 10 runnings.
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The day has finally come, English football is on the return and the Premier League has finally been allowed to resume. Today we’ve got two fixtures to ease us back in with the usual schedule resuming this weekend, there is also at least one Premier League game every single day from the 19th-25th of June.
Aston Villa host surprise European hopefuls Sheffield United in a 6 o’clock kick off that could lift them from 19th up to as far as 16th if they were to pick up 3 points. Villa’s preparation for today’s game was a recent 2-2 draw against West Midlands rivals West Brom where Jack Grealish impressed as he has done all season, he’s scored 7 goals and managed to pick up 7 assists so far in 26 appearances. The Englishman has caught the eye of many of the top teams and has had big-price transfer rumours surrounding him too, he has also been fouled the most in the league this season, 127 times- 4.88 times a game on average.
Below is footage of the goal the Englishman scored against West Brom in their friendly.
Villa have also lost their 4 most recent PL games and their record vs the current top 10 is nothing short of disappointing. They’ve won 1, drawn 2 and lost the other 11 in the games they’ve played, a slight worry.
Sheffield United have repeatedly been called the surprise package of this season, the antepost relegation favourites are currently 7th and a win tonight will take them back up to 5th. The defensive consistency has been the core to their success, they’ve conceded the 2nd least goals in the league this season, an average of 0.96 a game which is lower than only the runaway leaders, Liverpool. Sheffield United’s away form is also eye catching, they’ve conceded less than a goal a game on the road too and have only lost twice, both 2-0 losses to City and Liverpool. They have had a couple of warm up friendlies, a 4-0 win against Hull was the highlight with Lundstram bagging a brace, confirming he’s match fit and ready to offer the goalscoring threat as he has all season.
Jack O’Connell has been a prominent figure as one of the three centre backs for Sheffield United and looks set to miss his first minutes of the season due to injury and John Fleck has a knock so could be a doubt. Aston Villa do not seem to be suffering with any injuries so will have a full squad to choose from.
Jack O’Connell (pictured above) has played every single minute of this season and cost the Blades only £225,000
Sheffield United’s form away from home is hard to ignore especially since they haven’t lost away from home against anyone with exception of the leagues top two. It’s likely to be a tight game with the likes of Grealish looking ready, a draw seems a justified selection.
Man City’s goal for the remainder of this season will be to hold onto 2nd place, if they were to lose today against Arsenal at 20:15, Liverpool can win the league this weekend with 8 games to spare. Pep’s preparation for this resumption has been very interesting, City haven’t played a single friendly which is really bizarre considering Arsenal have played 2, this could have a major effect on the match fitness and it’s a strange decision regardless.
Sergio Aguero has been a thorn in Arsenal’s side in recent meetings, in the last 4 games played in Manchester he’s scored 5 goals and the team have scored 10. In the last 4, both teams have scored in each game and there’s been over 2.5 goals scored as well.
Pierre Emerick Aubameyang has been the shining light in a dull Arsenal team in recent years, the Gabonese striker has kept them afloat despite their current league position of 9th. A win today will move the Gunners back into a realistic European challenge but a loss could arguably be considered a missed opportunity as this is a game in hand over their current nearby rivals. Arsenal are 8 points away from the Champions League spots but only 3 away from the Europa League ones, they’re currently unbeaten in their last 11 away games in all competitions but 7 of those have been draws. Arsenal’s overall away form is a similar story, they’ve drawn 8 of their 13 league games and also struggled to score, only scoring 14 goals which for their expected high standards, is not good enough.
Man City have been underwhelming in comparison to recent seasons, they’ve lost 2 home games this season which is the same amount as they had in the two previous seasons combined and the lack of match fitness is a niggling worry. Arsenal are unlikely to have what it takes to beat City but could definitely grab a goal or two with their match fit forwards. This game will have goals.
It’s a joy to have football back and it wouldn’t be the same without a bet or two.
There is 2 suggestions provided below, a single each for both games that could also be doubled- stake accordingly.
Today marks day one of quite a surreal Royal Ascot meeting because it will not be open to the public. Our focus is on the second race at 13:50, the Queen Anne Stakes. The race is held over Ascot’s straight 1 mile track and originated in 1840, it was named the Queen Anne Stakes in 1930 after the founder of the racecourse. In the last decade there hasn’t been a single trainer win the race twice and if Frankie Dettori wins, he’ll break a record and become the first jockey to have won the race seven times.
The favourite for the race is currently Aidan O’Brien trained Circus Maximus, the winner of last season’s St James Palace Stakes and is partnered by the same jockey, Ryan Moore. The colt won his last European start in France at the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp ahead of the Irish 2000 Guineas winner and further highly regarded horses, he then travelled to Santa Anita to compete in the Breeders Cup where he lost out on a place on the line. This globetrotter is more than capable of competing at the highest level as he’s proven and also won on last season’s reappearance from a similar length break, worthy favourite.
Frankie Dettori’s potentially record breaking ride is aboard one of only two female horses in this year’s renewal, Terebellum. Dettori picked up the ride for Godolphin to gain their first joint success in 8 years, prior to that he had 942 wins for the stable and he gained his 943rd at Newmarket in the Dahlia Stakes over 1m2f. This filly has the advantage of a recent run over the majority of the field and is also trying her luck over 1 mile for the first time in her career, she also has only ran at the top level once- finishing 5th in France last October. Frankie also said in an interview that she only got a little tired in her win because it was her first run out this year on grass so there’s clearly more to come.
Frankie aboard Terebellum for her win at Newmarket in the Dahlia Stakes
Representing the King Power stable is Fox Chairman with former champion jockey Silvestre De Sousa on board. This Kingman colt has had a fair chunk of misfortune in recent times despite having progressive form, he finished 3rd behind Circus Maximus at Chester last May when he had a troubled passage whilst travelling at the back of the field and suffered a similar fate in last years Hampton Court Stakes when 2nd behind Sangarius. It’s quite difficult to gage the potential of this horse as he’s not had a clear effort at the finish in any of his big races and he’s also dropping down to a mile for the first time since his 4L debut success at the trip. Interesting.
Duke of Hazzard is trained by Paul and Oliver Cole and comes from a relatively small stable in consideration to his main competitors. The stable star rattled off a hat-trick in his last 3 runs of the season and has clearly relished the step back up to 1m after his 5th of 18 in the Jersey Stakes at this course over 7 furlongs. The colt also finished 3rd in 2018’s Chesham Stakes over 7f so has form at this track, so it’s interesting to see whether the straight mile of Ascot will bring out improvement. He is also re-opposing Turjomaan (25/1), who has David Egan on board for the first time and that horse is taking a big step up in grade.
Paul and Oliver Cole- Pictured right hold a dual training license and own Duke of Hazzard (not pictured)
The horse at the top of the RPR’s and official ratings is Mustashry, who also happens to be the oldest horse in the field at the age of 7 and has the services of Dane O’Neill who picks up the ride on this horse for only the third time in 4 years. The time he was on board four years ago, the pairing won over C+D at 8/1 and this will be the horses third attempt at this C+D having finished 7th in this race last year. Mustashry’s last start was over 7f and disposed of Limato by 1 ¼ lengths, a trip he’s got a 100% win rate at, the return to 1 mile is not a bad thing but Jim Crowley jumping ship to Mohaather could be.
The Marcus Tregoning trained colt Mohaather is one of the most unexposed horses in this race, he’s only had 5 career starts, winning 3 of them and 2 of them at a graded level. The yard since the resumption of racing has only had 10 runners with 4 of them being winners, a 40% win rate is not one to be ignored. In addition the horse has only run over a mile once in his short career so far which was over this C+D where he finished a respectable 5th in the QEII. It’s also a shame we didn’t get to see him in last year’s Guineas due to a setback but today will really show us what this potentially top class colt can do.
Skardu had bags of potential coming into last season on the back of two impressive wins in his first two races. He then followed up with a 3rd in the 2000 Guineas and a 4th in the Irish 2000 Guineas and finally a 4th in the St James Palace Stakes behind eventual winner the re-opposing, Circus Maximus. The William Haggas trained horse will have the services of regular rider, James Doyle who was on board for those big races previously mentioned. After a 2 month break after his Ascot run, he finished 4th behind Duke of Hazzard but it’s very likely there’s more to come and Doyle is the man to do it. The 10 month break could possibly be a bit of a worry though, frame claims.
Skardu (far right)- pictured winning the Craven Stakes at Newmarket in April 2019
Andrea Atzeni’s mount is Roseman, another Kingman colt with a very similar profile to Fox Chairman. On his most recent start he finished 4 ½ lengths ahead of Century Dream but the ground was a lot heavier than is expected today. Century Dream’s reappearance this week saw a victory ahead of King of Comedy by 1 ½ lengths, a very impressive performance that has franked the form if Roger Varian has Roseman ready for this. The colt’s only appearance at Ascot was in behind Fox Chairman in last season’s Hampton Court Stakes over a longer trip, this is a horse to keep an eye on at a bigger price, especially if there’s a fair bit of rain.
The shock 66/1 winner of the 2018 1000 Guineas, Billesdon Brook is a consistent performer at the very highest level and has also had a recent run on the AW when finishing 3/4 of a length behind the current Duke of Cambridge Stakes favourite, Nazeef. Sean Levey’s regular mount also won a group 1 race at Newmarket in front of some very good horses (Lavenders Blue, Iridessa, Laurens). This mare is suited to a bigger field and has proved it by winning 4 of her 7 victories in races with more than 14 horses. Richard Hannon’s mare looks to be of excellent value at roughly 20/1 at the time of writing.
The remainder of the field include Space Traveller who looks the pick of the rest, last year’s Jersey Stakes winner has Daniel Tudhope on board and he guided Lord Glitters to success in this race last year. The horse never seems to be far away from the frame since being moved up in trip to 7f and above, a price of 25/1 could be very good.
Space Traveller winning at Leopardstown before his trip to the States for the Breeders Cup
Plumatic hails from the French yard of F H Graffard, he’s only raced once in the UK in an ordinary group 3 at Salisbury where he came away victorious and he’s also a group 2 winner in France, the booking of Oisin Murphy to ride is something to note.
Bless Him beat Lord North and Solid Stone in 2 of his victories at the end of last season, both of those horses have won nicely on their seasonal reappearances but at the time he had Jamie Spencer on board (currently sidelined through injury). In his first race back he finished a distant 7th behind Marie’s Diamond who slipped the field and ran away a ready winner in a listed event at Newmarket last week. The even steeper waters for both horses does not look ideal.
The remaining two in this year’s Queen Anne field include a previous winner of the race and a horse owned by last year’s winning trainer. Escobar is the sole representative from David O’Meara’s yard and he’s the trainer of last year’s winner- Lord Glitters. Escobar won a 20 runner race over C+D but that was with heavy ground, his reappearance saw him finish dead last in the race won by Marie’s Diamond. Finally, Accidental Agent, the winner of the 2018 Queen Anne Stakes is a rank outsider with prices of roughly 66/1 and hasn’t won since that victory. The horse was intended to defend his crown last season but refused to race as he occasionally will and the form ever since the win has not been anywhere near the standard required.
This year’s Queen Anne has lots of options in regards to a bet, a few bookmakers have provided some excellent options and offers aswell.
PADDY POWER are offering a £5 free bet for this race and SKYBET are offering money back if your pick was to finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Paddy Power’s option requires no stake at all so it’s there to be used, but Skybet is where I’ll be putting my money.
Billesdon Brook’s big field form and consistency cannot be ignored and at a price of 20/1, the value is screaming out. Roseman also stands a very good chance and the favourite Circus Maximus is of course a big danger.
I’ll be going with Billesdon Brook to claim another big race at a big price at 20/1 using Skybet’s offer.
Betting Forecast:
Circus Maximus 9/4, Terebellum 3/1, Fox Chairman 8/1, Duke Of Hazzard 12/1, Mohaather 12/1, Skardu 12/1, Roseman 12/1, Mustashry 14/1, Billesdon Brook 16/1, Space Traveller 20/1, Turjomaan 20/1, Plumatic 20/1, Bless Him 33/1, Escobar 50/1, Accidental Agent 50/1, Marie’s Diamond 50/1.
The focus of the Bundesliga has been on the dominance of Bayern Munich who seem to have run away with the league in a blink of an eye, but today’s focus is on the bottom 2. Paderborn host Werder Bremen in a game that anything less than 3 points looks like a certain relegation for them, they’re currently 8 points behind 16th place Dusseldorf and 11 behind Mainz with a possible 12 points remaining. Dusseldorf host Dortmund at the same time as this game so it’s likely the Paderborn faithful will be keeping a keen eye on it because if Dusseldorf pull out a shock win, Paderborn’s Bundesliga run is over.
The attention for this game seems to be on Paderborn but Werder Bremen are in a horrible position considering the club’s vast top tier history, a win for the away side today puts them level with Dusseldorf and will be a continuation of the form they’ve brought back since the resumption of football. Bremen have claimed 7 of the last 15 points available and 6 of them have been claimed away from home which is something that Bremen have done all season, they’ve won 19 of their 25 league points on the road. Leonardo Bittencourt scored the only goals in the recent wins but is an injury doubt for today’s game. Bremen’s recent 3 away wins have all been by a 1-0 scoreline which also bodes well considering only 23% of Bundesliga games since the resumption have been won by the home side.
Side-by-Side comparisons of home and away form showing Bremen’s prominence on the road–– Stats from www.flashscore.com
Despite Paderborn’s league position they’ve only lost 1 of their last 5 games but have also gone without a win. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw against Leipzig where they dominated for the entire second half with Leipzig being down to 10 men early on, it showed very positive signs for what this team is capable of with such a limited budget. The West German side got promoted to the Bundesliga this season after back to back promotions from the German third tier and regardless of the conclusion of this season, they’ve proven to be worthy of their spot in the league.
Paderborn have scored in every single home game excluding one this season but have not kept a clean sheet in 12 home games, panning back to a 2-0 win against Dusseldorf. Starting centre-back Uwe Hünemeier has played every minute of Paderborn’s recent 5 matches and is suspended after a fifth yellow card against Leipzig. Klaus Gjasula broke a Bundesliga record for yellow cards when getting his 15th in his 25th appearance vs Augsburg but has since got another card and looks likely to continue the trend with his reckless style of midfield play.
Klaus Gjasula vs Leipzig 06/06/2020
The two teams both have the same record in regards to games being over 2.5 goals, Paderborn have seen 11/15 home games with 3 or more goals and Bremen have also seen over 2.5 in 11 of their away games this season.
This game has huge relevance for both teams and is bound to be feisty, below is a bet that takes into consideration some of these stats shown.
Price accurate as of 1:00PM 13/06/2020.
11/1 and 6/1 winners in the two previous pieces, more bets, stats and sport can be found on my Twitter.
Bayern Munich sit 7 points clear at the top of the Bundesliga with an available 15 points up for grabs meaning that 3 wins would increase their already record breaking streak of 7 straight titles. Their opposition and hosts today are Bayer Leverkusen who’re currently joint in 4th with Mönchengladbach (who lost against Freiburg last night) so any dropped points today would significantly dent their hopes for a top 4 finish and possibly be considered a missed opportunity.
The reverse fixture ended with 3 points for the away side Leverkusen, they came away 2-1 victors and manager Peter Bosz extended his 100% win-rate against Bayern as the manager of Leverkusen to 2 from 2. In that fixture, all goals were scored in the first half which is the normal for these sides, Leverkusen themselves have seen a goal in 11 of their 12 games this calendar year and in the previous 6 head to head’s between the sides there’s been an average of 2.17 first half goals.
Leon Bailey scored a first half brace in the reverse fixture at the Allianz- 30/11/19
Havertz has continued to fuel his form with 5 goals in 4 games and he was injured when the reverse fixture was played aswell, he’s the man to change the game and try and cement a Champions League spot. The race is well and truly on for the top 4 spaces after Monchengladbach’s loss last night, any points at all for Bayer today will move them up into 4th.
Bayern have been simply electric since the start of December. In November they lost back to back games, one of which was today’s reverse fixture and one was against Mönchengladbach; since then they’ve won 18 games and only drawn once. In the Champions League they’ve put themselves on the board as possible favourites after easily disposing of Tottenham and Chelsea and in the Bundesliga they’ve set a standard levels above the rest of the league of late. In the most recent 8 games they’ve collected 7 clean sheets and as expected, Lewandowski has hit the ground running with 4 goals in as many games.
For today’s game there’s no fresh injury worries but there is a few players on the brink of suspension at such an important time of the season. Leverkusen’s centre back pairing of Jonathan Tah and Aleksandar Dragović have both received 4 yellow cards each, hence one away from a suspension- Tah was also sent off in the reverse fixture. Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller, the league’s top goal scorer and goal creator are also both one yellow card away from being suspended.
It’s hard to ignore Leverkusen’s 100% win record vs Bayern whilst having Peter Bosz as manager but the way in which Bayern have been playing doesn’t seem to show any signs of real weakness. The league leaders have been priced at roughly 1/2 by the bookmakers but the value lies elsewhere. It is definitely worth noting that the last 6 head to heads between the sides have had 27 goals, an average of 4.5 goals a game.
A magnificent game for a neutral which could all but wrap up the title or open it up, shown below is a bet builder, created with some of the previously mentioned stats.
NOTE- stake not shown, this bet is a long-shot, stake accordingly(Price accurate as of 13:00 06/06/2020)EDIT- Tah did not start, changed to Dragovic.
For further bets, predictions and other sporting activity follow my Twitter.
A big week of announcements in the sporting world has seen the Premier League have an allocated return date, June 17th– something to really look forward to.
With 19 days until the return of English football, the Bundesliga’s non-stop exciting action will continue to fulfil the football need. As usual, there’s four 14:30 fixtures today and every single one of them has relevance to the relegation battle.
Hertha Berlin v Augsburg
Hertha Berlin play hosts to Augsburg who’ve taken a step outside of the bottom 6 after a comprehensive 3-0 away win against Schalke, their away form is still questionable at best though with 5 straight losses prior to that result with only 1 goal scored, Augsburg have also averaged 2.21 goals conceded per away league game this season. Hertha have looked a completely different team since the appointment of Bruno Labbadia last month, they’ve played 3 games since the resumption of football, scored 9 goals and picked up 7 points which has all but assured their safety and an outside shot of 6th place.
Piatek scoring the equaliser to confirm a big point in Hertha’s recent 2-2 draw with Leipzig
Matheus Cunha’s signing from Leipzig for 18,000,000€ was to be questioned after 2 goals in 35 appearances but he’s been fantastic and scored 4 goals whilst looking like a constant threat to any defence he’s faced. The Brazilian is bound to cause a problem for an Augsburg backline that concedes for fun.
Hertha Berlin to win 2-0 is generally available at 9/1
Hertha Berlin to win is generally available at 10/11.
Mainz v Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim won their first game in 8 with an eventful 3-1 win against Köln where young Christoph Baumgartner once again stole the show with 2 goals and an outstanding backheel assist. The Austrian has now scored 6 goals in his first season in professional football and looks like a player to keep a close eye on in the coming years. Today’s opponents Mainz have conceded the most goals so far this season in the Bundesliga and sit 1 point above a relegation play-off position whilst only losing 2 of their last 8 league fixtures.
Recent meetings between the 2 sides at Mainz’ Opel Arena have seen plenty of goals, 9 of the last 10 meetings have had over 2.5 goals scored and both teams have scored in 7 of those. Benjamin Hübner was sent off for Hoffenheim in their win against Köln and will be suspended for today’s game, Kramarić is also nursing an ankle injury so will be missing too.
Christoph Baumgartner to score and both teams to score is generally available around 5/2.
Schalke v Werder Bremen
Schalke’s David Wagner’s job security is getting more and more shaky with a consistent string of poor performances from a side that were in the top 6 less than 2 weeks ago. Schalke have now dropped to 9th, haven’t won in 10 games, and have only scored 3 goals in those matches, they’ve also conceded the most in the league within those 10. Their opponents Werder Bremen, are second from bottom and are at risk of dropping out of the top tier of German football for the first time in 40 years; they’ve only ever been in the second tier for one season in their history. Despite a horrendous season, they look to stand more chance against this crumbling Schalke side that are on a drastic fall down the table.
Sergio Cordoba finalizing a 3-0 loss for Schalke 24-05-2020
Bremen’s three games since the league’s return have seen them pick up 4 points from a possible 9 which for a team in their position is not at all a negative. The bookmakers have priced Schalke up as favourites for the game but after seeing the standard they’ve been playing at, that’s a surprise. Milot Rashica is Bremen’s top goalscorer this season with 7 goals but has had a 12-game goal drought and could find the back of the net in a game where he’ll find chances.
Werder Bremen to win or draw and under 2.5 goals is generally available at 15/8
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt
Wolfsburg pulled off a shock 4-1 win away against high flying Leverkusen with a man of the match performance from Max Arnold who contributed 2 assists and scored a free kick with the help of a deflection. Frankfurt have finished in the European places the past two seasons but find themselves in a relegation scrap this time around, they’re only 2 points above the relegation zone so travelling to in-form Wolfsburg will be no easy feat. Furthermore, Frankfurt’s away form is the worst in the Bundesliga, they’ve managed to claim 7 points and in their last 14 away games they’ve conceded 41 goals, an average of 2.92 goals per game. The only positive that could possibly be taken is that they’ve scored in 10 of those games despite conceding so many.
Wolfsburg home form is one of the worst in the division despite the 6th position they sit in, they’ve scored and conceded just over 1 goal a game, making their home fixtures a tough watch for the neutrals- but they should come away with a win today.
Wolfsburg to win is generally available at EVENS
Wolfsburg to win 2-1 is generally available at 8/1
Here is the league table as a visual reminder of some of the teams in action, some wins for the lower teams will make things very interesting. Paderborn host Dortmund on Sunday and Düsseldorf travel to Bayern so any points collected by their surrounding teams should allow them to make ground towards safety.
Check out my twitter for more betting selections and a extensive sheet of predictions for the specific games on a bi-weekly basis.
This evening’s entertainment is of the highest possible quality. The title challenge could be all but concluded tonight if Bayern pick up a win away in Dortmund, it’d put them 7 points away from their rivals and 10 away from 3rd placed Leipzig, but a win for Dortmund would put them 1 point behind current leaders, Bayern.
Bayern annihilated Dortmund in the reverse fixture at the Allianz, they completed a routine victory by 4 goals to nil where Lewandowski scored a brace and Dortmund only had a single shot. In recent times Bayern have dominated games in terms of possession and chances but the results tends to be varied, Dortmund won the Super Cup at the start of this season 2-0 but Bayern had 65% possession and had 16 shots in comparison to Dortmund’s 5. The result is all that really matters when all is said and done but the way Bayern have dominated in recent times really make the worry set in.
This game has plenty of relevance for the title challenge but also for some individual records, Robert Lewandowski has 27 goals in his 25 appearances in the Bundesliga this season and is only 5 goals away from the highest goal tally the league has seen in 44 years. Pierre Emerick Aubameyang scored 31 goals in the 2016/17 season and with exception of Lewandowski, the 30-goal mark hadn’t been reached since 1976. It’s unlikely that Lewandowski would break into the top 4 highest tallies, Dieter Müller scored 34 goals that year and the three records higher were all set by German legend, Gerd Müller (38 in 69/70, 40 in 71/72 and 36 in 72/73).
The record for assists is also under threat and two of the players challenging the lofty mark set by Kevin De Bruyne (21 in 2014), are in action today.
Kevin De Bruyne winning Player of the Year in 2014- only the fifth non German to do so
Thomas Müller has 17 to his name and Jadon Sancho has 16, both players are well within reach of matching the record if not breaking it. Sancho has only played 38 minutes of football since the re-commencement of the Bundesliga after lingering injury worries whereas Müller has played every minute bar 2. Müller is averaging an assist every 102 minutes and averages a goal contribution every 72 when you include the 7 he’s scored himself, but Sancho is something else. The Englishman is still only 20 years old and has had a part in 30 league goals so far this season, he’s been a part of a goal every 61 minutes this season which is simply absurd.
Football hasn’t been at the same level as it was prior to the pandemic but these two huge clubs have looked the closest to playing at the top standard so you can guarantee a great game, especially when you add in what’s at stake.
The history behind this fixture doesn’t allow a certain idea of what the outcome will be but after seeing 180 minutes played by both teams in the last 10 days, you’d be leaning towards Bayern. The offensive threat of Dortmund is never to be underestimated but as Bayern have proven time and time again, they turn up for the big occasion.
Bookmakers agree that Bayern enter the game as favourites despite Dortmund being unbeaten at home this season in the league and they’ve also only lost 1 in their last 30 Bundesliga home fixtures. It’s a very difficult game to have a wager on but there’s nothing concrete that would be comfortable enough to recommend. I’ll personally post my bets on my twitter nearer to kick off (5:30PM) if that’s of interest.
3rd faces 5th in an enticing looking fixture in which Monchengladbach host Leverkusen at Borussia Park in a battle for a top four spot, both teams are comfortably clear of 6th place Wolfsburg and a win either way this afternoon will be a big 3 points.
The reverse fixture in November finished 2-1 in favour of the away side Monchengladbach and all the goals were scored in the first half which is not uncommon for Leverkusen. In their 26 league games this season there’s been 45 goals scored in their first halves, which is an average of 1.73 a game and the highest in the Bundesliga- it’s also 56% of the goals they’ve seen in the league this season. Monchengladbach have had 2 or more goals scored in 84% of their overall matches this season too with Leverkusen having 88% of their games with 2 or more.
Bayer Leverkusen were very impressive in brushing aside a struggling Bremen side in their comeback game on Monday where they walked away 4-1 victors, Kai Havertz also got on the scoresheet twice in the first half. Leverkusen have been relentless away from home in recent games, in their last 7 games in all competitions they’ve scored a total of 19 goals, an average of 2.71 goals per game. The aforementioned Havertz looks to be coming into a nice run of form too, he’s now scored 8 league goals this season and with the ongoing ankle injury for Kevin Volland, he’s going to be the talisman up top.
Leverkusen celebrating their win in Bremen- 18/05/2020
Monchengladbach restarted their season with a 3-1 win away in Frankfurt and Alassane Plea scored within the first minute, Ramy Bensebaini also netted from the spot for his fifth goal of the season from defence in only his twelfth appearance and it’s clear to see why he’s keeping the long-serving Oscar Wendt out of the side. Gladbach have scored an average of 2 goals a game in the league this season and 57% of those have come at home but unfortunately, they do concede on a regular basis too. In the 13 home fixtures they have played this season, there’s been 11 occasions where their opponent has scored and they’ve also managed only 5 clean sheets overall, a 19.2%, not quite good enough for a top four side.
It’s a very difficult game to call which way it’s going to go, Monchengladbach’s good home form is really overshadowed by the Leverkusen offensive threat, the away side have also scored 5 goals in 2 of their last 4 games away at Gladbach. The bookies have opened up with the home side as favourites with a slight swing in their favour at around 13/10 (2.30), but the value undoubtedly lies in the away side.
Here’s a little wager including some of the previously mentioned stats that represents some value.
Tom “the Albatross” Stoltman is attempting an improvement on his own atlas stone world record at 6PM GMT on the 23rd of May, just a week after his brother Luke had a go at breaking Žydrūnas Savickas’ 2015 log press world record.
The 2020 Britain’s Strongest Man runner-up looks more than capable of performing this lift, he’s going from strength to strength every year and has also been Scotland’s strongest man for the last 2 years. The previous record he set at the Arnold Classic in Ohio was for 273KG (602lbs) and there was absolutely no hesitation as he stepped up to a historic atlas stone lift and looked as if he was capable of a lot more.
That record was not only impressive in the way Tom dispatched of the stone, but it was also 22KG heavier than the previous record set by Brian Shaw in 2016. Tom Stoltman also holds the world record for 5 standard atlas stones at a ridiculous 16.01 seconds beating Mateusz Kieliszkowski who formerly held the record at 16.09.
The atlas stone event is considered the most iconic test of strength in the strongman world and is the event at the competitions finish, it originally was introduced in 1986 and the stones back then ranged from 100-160KG whereas now the competition standard is between 120-200KG; lifting the stones onto platforms descending in height, retrospective to the weight of the stone. The event tends to favour the taller, heavier athletes and at 6ft 8 and 155KG, Tom fits the bill.
This is the third record breaking event we’ve seen since the COVID-19 pandemic has been active, Hafþór Júlíus Björnsson broke the deadlift world record, lifting 501KG (1104lbs) and Luke Stoltman came very close to breaking the log record. Tom is the third athlete to try and break a record and next week Oleksii Novikov is going to be having a crack at breaking the record for lifting a giant dumbbell for repetitions.
Tune in and watch Tom for this unbelievable feat of strength and manpower- 6PM UK TIME on chttps://coresports.world/
It’s an absolute joy to be able to get excited for sports again and the Bundesliga is commencing during the COVID-19 pandemic with 6 fixtures this Saturday. Leipzig are currently sitting 3rd in the table, only 5 points from top spot Bayern but they’ve lost less games than the German Champions and have a real chance of maintaining a very impressive finish to the season.
Leipzig have conceded the joint least goals this season but have had an issue winning games of late. In their last 7 Bundesliga games they’ve dropped points in 5 of them. Amongst those 7 fixtures they annihilated 6th place Schalke away at the Veltins Arena and claimed a respectable point away at Bayern too. Unfortunately, their loss to under performing Frankfurt and failures to prevent conceding early goals against Leverkusen and Monchengladbach have meant they’ve slipped a few points behind the title challengers.
Timo Werner’s electric start to the season has fizzled out with the striker scoring just 1 in his last 7 league appearances as opposed to the 20 he scored in his first 18 games. The speculation surrounding him is immense as he’s available for a cheap fee considering his talent but he’s more than capable of flying back into form, especially after a 2-month break. Leipzig also have a tendency to score late, they’ve scored 12 out of their 62 league goals after the 80-minute mark, that’s a whopping 19% of their overall tally.
Freiburg won the Bundesliga 2 in 15/16 and then followed up with a European spot the year after but have finished in 13th and 15th in the most recent two seasons. This year has been hugely different where they’re only 1 point away from 6th and therefore Europe again. Nils Petersen is the man that’s expected to provide the goals, he’s been prolific for 6 seasons now and has scored 73 goals in his 158 appearances, an average of 0.46 goals a game. This season the problem has been consistency, they’ve lost games that you’d be expecting points in- 2-0 home losses to 16th and 18th place Dusseldorf and Paderborn really raise a question.
Petersen pictured above, celebrating with Luca Waldschmidt
In the 9 meetings between the sides it’s a very even split with the results, there’s only been 1 draw and each side has picked up 4 wins each. Freiburg’s 4 wins have all come whilst playing at home and have never returned with more than a point when travelling to Leipzig. The reverse fixture in October this season saw Freiburg come away 2-1 victors and Leipzig only scored a consolation in the dying minutes of stoppage time.
This time around, Leipzig simply must win to keep their title challenge alive, after this game against Freiburg they’ve only got to play 2 more teams in the top half in their remaining 8 games, Hoffenheim away (13th June) and Dortmund at home (20th June), 3 points could really set them on their way and a win is anticipated.
The bookies have priced Leipzig as a very short price so the value doesn’t lie in the traditional markets, the referee for today’s game is Tobias Stieler and he’s given out 39 yellow cards and 6 reds in only 12 games he’s refereed this year. Konrad Laimer is notorious for yellow cards, the Austrian midfielder averages 0.40 cards per game and has also picked up a yellow card in 4 of his last 6 appearances. Nicolas Hofler of Freiburg is very similar in regard to the lack of discipline, he’s averaged 0.31 cards per game over the last 4 seasons and is an excellent choice for a punt.
Here is a bet builder with some of the stats shown in this piece, I’m going to have a play on it, the stake is not shown, bet what you can justify. Good luck and enjoy the return of football.
Amidst the pandemic, the German government have amazingly given the all clear for the Bundesliga to commence starting May 16th -despite three players testing positive for COVID-19 just this week. From a sports fan perspective, the sport partially returning will be a delight for eyes that haven’t seen high quality football for almost two months and the Bundesliga is one of the most exciting leagues in the world at the moment.
Bayern Munich are top of the league by four points and are on track for their eighth title in a row with Robert Lewandowski consistently leading the line and scoring incomprehensible amount of goals. The polish man has scored 20+ goals in 8 of his 10 seasons at the top level and seems to be getting better and better at the ripe age of 31. Bayern look to stand a good chance of retaining their title but their nearest rivals Borussia Dortmund, are only four points behind and have put a magnificent team together after the signing of wonderkid, Håland.
Dortmund signed Jadon Sancho for a bargain fee of around £8 million and last season bagged 12 goals alongside a further 17 assists which is an amazing season by anyone’s standards but for an 18-year-old that’s as promising as it comes. This season has not been any different, he’s scored 14 goals and managed 15 assists in 23 games, an average of 1.26 goal contributions a game, ridiculous. Thorgan Hazard and Hakimi have also registered 10 assists each, really proving that the offensive power that Dortmund possesses is uncapped.
Leipzig have been a joy to watch in very recent times, the Eastern based club was only founded in 2009 but have spring boarded into Germanys topflight and have proven it is in no way a fluke. They seem to continue defying expectations and have proven in the Champions League that they’re ready to compete on the international stage aswell. Timo Werner has been the centre of endless interest from Europe’s top clubs and is available for a fee affordable by the majority and it’s with good reason. The German striker has led the line for the whole of Leipzig’s four year run in the Bundesliga so far and has scored 71 goals so far- this season scoring 21 in only 25 appearances. Peter Gulácsi and Dayot Upamecano have also been huge in Leipzig’s rise, with Gulácsi in goal during the 33 games he played last season he had a 48.5% clean sheet ratio, over 7% higher than Gladbach’s Sommer in second.
Borussia Monchengladbach have ascended to the top half of the German league in the last 5 years and picked up manager Marco Rose from a massively overachieving Salzburg side that not only won the Austrian league but managed a European semi-final. Monchengladbach haven’t got any world beating players like the three teams above them but with their style of play and management they’re a real force to be reckoned with and have shown great consistency against the lower teams but have struggled against their top 6 competitors, with exception of a home win against Bayern. The West German side haven’t finished in the top 2 of the Bundesliga in 42 years and it’d be some feat to finish there this season. The club is on the rise none the less and with the Champions League football they’re also playing, they’re one to keep a close eye on in the coming years.
Bayer Leverkusen at the end of the 20th century were one of Germany’s top teams and have fallen from grace without a strong Bundesliga finish in over 10 years. They’ve proven themselves to still be a prominent threat this year with wins against Dortmund and a strong run in the Champions League but they started the season very poorly and find themselves in 5th, 2 points behind the previously mentioned, Monchengladbach. Leon Bailey’s injury riddled season hasn’t helped with their current league position and Kai Havertz also hasn’t figured as much as last season. If Leverkusen could resume the form they were on prior to the break, they’re going to find a way into the top 4.
The sixth position in the Bundesliga is currently occupied by Schalke who sit 10 points behind Leverkusen, but are very closely followed by Wolfsburg, Freiburg and Hoffenheim who are all separated by only 2 points. Finishing in this position in the league will get any of these sides the chance to qualify for the Europa league and that’d be expected for each of these clubs as they’re regularly taking part in European competitions but for Freiburg it’d be a great finish. They were promoted as champions in 2015/16 and secured a European qualification spot in their first season back in the topflight but were unsuccessful in a first round exit to Slovenian side, Domžale. The European spots are very closely contested but the difference between the rest of the league is not a huge jump either.
Cologne make up 10th position with 32 points, 3 points behind the European hopefuls. They sit in the middle of the table, 5 points from 6th and 6 points from just above the relegation zone so there’s no space for slip ups. 11th to 14 consists of Union Berlin, Frankfurt, Hertha Berlin and Augsburg. Frankfurt really stand out in this group, the last 2 seasons they’ve secured European football but after the sales of Sebastian Haller and Luka Jović they’ve seemed to lack the cutting edge offensively, they’ve also only kept 4 clean sheets in 25 games which is inexcusable.
Sebastian Haller and Luka Jovic celebrating vs Shakthar in last seasons Europa League
The bottom four in this seasons Bundesliga are currently Mainz, Dusseldorf, Werder Bremen and finally, Paderborn. The relegation setup for the German league and a few other European leagues is different to the English system that many football fans are familiar with. The bottom two clubs get automatically relegated and 16th (third bottom) goes into a play-off game against the team that finish 3rd in the Bundesliga .2, the winner gets their place in the top tier and the loser plays the next season in the second tier.
Werder Bremen have played the most games as a club in the Bundesliga’s history and the topflight regulars are in serious danger of relegation, they’re sitting on 18 points with safety 8 points away. The 2004 league and cup double winners had expectations of Europe this season and it’s gone horrendously wrong and could be a sour year in the club’s brilliant history. Bremen have scored the least goals in the league this season and have also conceded the most, they’re in a difficult position.
The remaining 9 games start this weekend and it remains to be seen how these teams will return to football, there is rumours that each team will be allowed five substitutes but for how long that rule will continue is yet to be known. A match preview will be available here on Friday, football is back folks.
Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth have been a joy to watch in recent years with offensive football against whichever opponent they face, which made for exciting games with plenty of goals. During the current five season spell in the Premier League, Bournemouth have relied on their goalscoring ability to simply outscore the opposition despite having defensive issues along the way. From the 15/16 season where they came up to the PL, to the end of last season’s campaign, they conceded a total of 265 goals in 152 games, an average of 1.74 goals- a gargantuan amount. They’ve managed to score 201 goals along the way, a 1.32 goal a game average, which has sufficed.
This season’s downward spiral has been down to the lack of goals, the Cherries are currently sitting in 18th position (level on points with 16th and 17th placed West Ham and Watford) with 27 points in 29 games and with 29 goals scored. The usual threshold for Premier League safety tends to be marked at 40 points, in recent seasons anywhere between 37-40 has seemed to be enough but if the season was to continue it’d take a real turn around to see that happen.
Tyrone Mings was sent on loan to Aston Villa in January 2019 and later joined them for a £20 million fee last summer, but he is exactly what Bournemouth are lacking with all their registered defenders suffering one or more injuries each throughout this year. Lloyd Kelly was purchased from Bristol City for £13,000,000 after looking very promising at full-back in the Championship but he suffered a hamstring injury in early November and hasn’t been seen at all in the PL this season. Arnaut Groeneveld cost the Cherries £13,700,000 and similar to Kelly has been riddled with injuries and hasn’t hit the scene as expected, he’s only played 405 minutes in the PL but there’s bound to be more to come once he’s returned to full fitness.
Lloyd Kelly signing for Bournemouth, the signing was completed on May 18th 2019
It’s arguably been an unfortunate season for Bournemouth with new signings getting injured and the trend doesn’t end with the new signings. Josh King has missed 10 out of 29 games through injury and David Brooks has been injured since July 2019. The Welshman lit the league up in his debut year after arriving from Sheffield United, he contributed to 13 goals and always looked a threat up until his injury and there’s been a significant setback in the goalscoring of Bournemouth ever since.
Bournemouth’s performance relies on a fit squad and the likes of Calum Wilson, Nathan Ake and Aaron Ramsdale have been able to keep Bournemouth from really falling away from the pack. There’s the obvious likelihood for a summer signing overhaul if they were to stay in the Premier League, Eddie Howe’s side will more than likely sign an experienced PL goalkeeper someone along the lines of Michel Vorm who is currently Tottenham’s third goalkeeper but would be more than capable of a supporting role to young Ramsdale. An addition defensively could be seen as a good signing with the likes of Simon Francis moving into his more advanced years, Ben Godfrey would be an excellent replacement considering the likelihood of Norwich being relegated, he could be snapped up on a relatively cheap deal and he’d be a perfect partner for Nathan Ake to really sure up the defensive woes. Harry Wilson is currently on loan and has been a rare shining light this season and a permanent deal to keep him at the Vitality would be a great deal too.
Harry Wilson scoring a free kick in a 3-1 home defeat to Man City on August 25th 2019
Eddie Howe is vital to what Bournemouth are doing and they’ve got a better squad than the teams around them so they’re undoubtedly capable of staying in the Premier League but as the pandemic continues, we’ll wait and see what the PL board decides for the rest of the season.
In an uncertain time during this global pandemic it’s to be assumed the season will end as it’s currently standing; what that means for next year’s competitions, is unknown. There’s been a few disappointing teams that have not lived up to expectation and should undoubtedly be doing better with the squads they’ve got and the finances available.
If you look at Manchester City’s league position, it’s very difficult to use the phrase “disappointing” for a team that are second that could win their game in hand and go 7 points clear of third. Pep Guardiola’s side set a seriously high bar in the 18/19 PL campaign by recording the second highest points tally the PL has ever seen- a year after they set the highest (100 points). This year they’re currently 25 points behind Liverpool who sit top and there’s a few reasons as to why that could be.
Aymeric Laporte was a staple in the title winning side of last season and played 3056 minutes, he’s only played 504 this year due to injuries and his presence has been a clear miss in the City core. Laporte is not only a consistent centre back but he’s also a huge piece of the offensive puzzle, the lack of passing out from the back and all over the pitch has majorly halted City’s progress and Laporte in the 18/19 season was head and shoulders above any other defender in Europe for “progressive carries of the ball”, the Frenchman also completed the most passes out of any defender in the 18/19 season.
Above is a graph from OptaPro, showing Laporte’s progressive movements in possession vs defenders in the other top 5 leagues
Leroy Sane in recent years has been vital to City’s title winning squads, the German winger has contributed 20 goals and 27 assists in the previous two seasons and has not played a single minute this season due to being riddled with injury. Man City scored 95 goals in last year’s heroic season which is an average of 2.5 goals a game, this year they’re not significantly worse with a 2.42 average. The problem lies in the defensive areas, they averaged 0.60 goals conceded p/ game last season but have jumped up to a 1.10 goal per game this campaign.
The way City went about their business last season you’d have thought they wouldn’t need to add to their already world class squad, but they signed Rodri from Atletico for £63,000,000 and Joao Cancelo for £58,000,000. The signing of Rodri has looked a good one especially since Fernandinho’s necessary move back into defence with the absence of Laporte but Cancelo hasn’t quite looked the full package for the price tag.
In times like these, most of the City squad and every other team will have their teams return to full fitness due to the foreseeable future being football-less but there has been some holes opened up during this season that City will need to be filling. Oleksandr Zinchenko has been a makeshift left back whilst Benjamin Mendy has been in and out of the injury room over the last couple of seasons and he’s looked capable, just not to the standard that City require.
The transfer window is somewhere along the line but it’s unclear to tell when City will be able to sign players but if you look at their squad, a consistently fit world class full back looks a necessary purchase. Achraf Hakimi is currently on loan at Dortmund from Real Madrid and has looked fantastic offensively in the Bundesliga and has 3 goals and 10 assists, primarily from full back- he’s also able to play on either side of the pitch and the wings. There’s a lot of transfer speculation surrounding the Moroccan at the moment, but City’s name hasn’t been mentioned at the time of writing, it would not be a surprise to see their name thrown into the mix.
Achraf Hakimi pictured after scoring a second goal in a 3-2 win against Inter Milan in this season’s Champions League
Under Pep, City always look dangerous and it’ll be a treat to see them back in action. To be honest, it’d just be great to have football back, there is discussion of the Premier League being finished behind closed doors in the next couple of months, but we can only hope.
At a time in which sport is most valuable and top quality sport is even harder to come by, Ireland has managed to put things into place to be able to have the racing behind closed doors and we’re treated to the BetVictor Hurdle.
Mary Frances has opened as favourite after a win over 3M at Punchestown where the mare was under pressure turning into the bend but disposed of an on-the-bridle Blast of Koeman by 4 ½ lengths where this impressive mare found plenty for pressure. In December, Mary Frances ran at Clonmel and finished only 1 ½ lengths behind the Storyteller who since has finished a very close runner up in the Pertemps at Cheltenham. This mare had two runs between her runner-up and her win that were losses by a big margin to high quality, Benie Des Dieux and Stormy Ireland. Big chance.
Jetz is another horse that is highly tried against the best opposition and seeing this gelding drop into a lower grade really catches the eye. Coming off of the back of a 2nd to a very smart looking opposition in Charli Parcs who returned from a 469 day break, Jetz has a similar profile to Mary Frances in that he runs consistently against the top horses but if you look back to this month last year, he romped home in a race of this grade. Robbie Power takes the ride as he always does (20/27 of Jetz races) and if he’s able to return to that form, he’s a leading contender.
🇮🇪 Charli Parcs returned from 469 days off the track to win this afternoon
Brace Yourself is an unexposed gelding that’s only had 2 runs over hurdles in his career and was not at all disgraced in a grade 2 at Navan recently. The Meade trained horse is still very unexposed after only 2 starts over hurdles and looked to have a promising future when winning a maiden hurdle in November 2018 at Down Royal. There’s a real question mark over this horse but could he bring form from his maiden victory; then there’d be a squeak.
Moyhenna is yet another horse with plenty of classy previous form. The Denis Hogan trained runner won in very nice fashion at the Punchestown festival last May whilst chasing and prior to that she won by 25L at Limerick. Thus far, she’s been unsuccessful over hurdles with a trouncing at Navan and has since had a fall and most recently pulled up at Gowran Park. This is a significant drop if you look at the standard of the handicaps she’s been running in, but the addition of cheekpieces could aid her chance.
The favourite Mary Frances has a weight allowance due to her being a mare and looks to have a huge chance, but JETZ rates a decent value pick at 11/4. The Harrington trained horse, having his regular jockey on board, at a lower grade than usual after his recent runner-up, looks a nice pick. SKYBET are also offering money back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd(up to £10). A top 3 finish would be a minimum expectation for this gelding.
Today marks the 10th running of the Marsh’s Novices Chase (formerly the JLT) that Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 5 of, all with favourites. The other 6 winners have only included 1 favourite and 1 horse that had a starting price in the double digits, Benefficient in 2013 for Tony Martin at 20/1.
Itchy Feet has opened as the favourite after sauntering to a grade 1 success where he defeated Midnight Shadow (re-opposing) with plenty in hand as he powered on at Sandown. Olly Murphy’s main chances for the festival are lead by the horse that won him his first ever G1 and after the unfortunate unseat of Brewin’upastorm in Tuesday’s Arkle, it leaves Itchy Feet to pick up the pieces to try and get him his first festival G1. The horse’s only run at Cheltenham in his career was at last year’s festival where he came 3rd in the Supreme behind Klassical Dream and Thomas Darby so we know he’s able at this course. This horse looks to have a good chance but isn’t an obvious pick whilst lurking around favouritism.
Notable winners of the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase:
🏆 2001 Best Mate 🏆 2016 Bristol De Mai 🏆 2017 Top Notch 🏆 2019 Defi Du Seuil 🏆 2020 Itchy Feet@O_J_murphy91 enjoys a first Grade One success as Itchy Feet takes the Scilly Isles @Sandownpark under Gavin Sheehan pic.twitter.com/F8hRRQ7cKH
Samcro has yet to fulfil his expected potential when he switched from fences to hurdles. After the 8 wins he started his career off with, he fell at Punchestown in April 2018, went 3 races without a win and then made the switch over to chasing. After his chase debut in which he bolted up by 17 lengths he took on Fakir D’oudairies (2nd in the Arkle on Tuesday) and was travelling much the better before falling just before 2 out. He then took on Faugheen and lost by 10 lengths at Limerick but has since had wind surgery and could be seen in a new light.
Faugheen “the machine” is looking to make Cheltenham roar with a potential 12th grade 1 win and is coming into this race in form that’s not far off of his career peak. In last year’s Stayers Hurdle he finished 6L away from Paisley Park on good to soft which looks as if it’ll be today’s ground. His first race this season he won by 7L in an ordinary race and followed up with the convincing victory over Samcro. The most recent of Faugheen’s races has been a 1/2L win over Easy Game which was slightly more laboured but has merely continued the excellent form. If you then take into consideration Mullins’ recent record in this race, we could be looking at the leading contender for this year’s renewal.
Melon has acquitted himself very well over the years including his 2018 Champion Hurdle runner-up but hasn’t quite snapped into the chasing swing of things. He finished 3L behind previously mentioned Fakir D’oudiaires and recently didn’t even come close to competing with Notebook after a mistake. This Mullins entry looks to have his work cut out for him after a pretty sub standard season in comparison to some of today’s competitors. In contrast, some of Melon’s best form is at Cheltenham so it could possibly bring out a good performance.
Annie Mc was a big antepost price of 33/1 a month or so ago and has opened up at 14/1 this evening. Jonjo O’Neill’s mare has raced only against her own sex in her career and has never raced above a G4 but has shown bundles of improvement upon every win so it’s impossible to see where this horses’s limitations lie and can not be underestimated.
Other runners include Mister Fisher who won a grade 2 ahead of Al Dancer at Doncaster in January but that form hasn’t amounted to much with everyone in behind disappointing in their next races out. Reserve Tank has been jumping poorly this season and has been turned over as an odds on favourite in 2 of his 3 starts but, similar to Melon, if he can bring some of his hurdle form from last season (4 wins, 2 G1’s) then he could stand a good chance.
Bapaume is the mount of Rachael Blackmore and this Mullins’ third choice looks set for a tough task based on the performances put up this year whilst chasing, he was a huge distance behind Notebook on the most recent start who failed to justify favouritism this week in the Arkle. Midnight Shadow was 3L behind and weakening behind Itchy Feet when he won his first G1 but was 2L infront of Deyrann De Carjacc who is currently second favourite for the Stayers Hurdle, this horse has a reasonable chance at a bigger price.
FAUGHEEN rates a premium selection for the Marsh and the 5/1 that’s being offered at the time of writing cannot be something to ignore, this could be the crowning glory for his career coming up the Cheltenham hill. SKYBET are once again offering money back on this race if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th so it could be considered a risk free bet.
The opening race of the Cheltenham festival is one of the most mouth-watering races of the whole 4 days with Asterion Forlonge leading the market and the top pick of the Willie Mullins trio, here’s a small assessment of some of the market principles.
Asterion Forlonge at the time of writing is heading the market as an 5/2 favourite which is easily justified after his 9 1/2L trouncing of Easywork at Leopardstown where he instantly drew away coming to the last and stayed on stoutly to record an impressive win. Paul Townend will be doing the steering and he’s got a 50% win rate from his last 10 rides in the last 14 days. In the gelding’s previous race he beat Pencilfulloflead by 10L who’s gone on to win convincingly since. The high chances and price of this horse seem accurate but the slight tendency to jump right over hurdles could be a small factor that could create a couple of minor problems.
Shishkin fell on hurdle debut in mid-December but has moulded into what seems a perfect “Cheltenham horse”, he won a G4 race by 11L with ease and followed up with a listed success at Huntingdon. Nicky Henderson (trainer) has said that this horse is his best chance of a winner at the festival this year and Shishkin does look a very nice type but hasn’t really raced in races to the calibre of some others he’ll be against. This one looks a bit too short for me but the way he’s stayed on in the last two races will suit the Cheltenham hill and Henderson’s had 32 runners in the last 20 years in this race and only had 1 winner so he’s left this novice a lot to do.
Shishkin wins the Listed Sidney Banks Memorial by a wide margin under @NdeBoinville, for trainer @sevenbarrows
Abracadabras represents significant value based on form alone. The Gordon Elliott trained runner has had 4 races this season with 3 victories, the only loss being a 1 1/2L defeat at the hands of short price Ballymore favourite, Envoi Allen, who is also the only horse to have beaten her over hurdles. In his G3 win in November she brushed aside Latest Exhibition (5/1 for the Albert Bartlett), who has franked the form by beating Andy Dufresne in a G2 and winning a G1 too. The third in that race was Darver Star (10/1 for the Champion Hurdle) who also finished 1/2L behind very promising mare, Honeysuckle. This horse is generally available at around 6/1 and it’s quite difficult to understand why; everything on paper is pointing to a huge run and a positive start to Gordon Elliot’s 2020 Cheltenham Festival.
Fiddlerontheroof is one of Colin Tizzard’s best chances for the festival and is a likeable type that’s progressed throughout the season, he finished 2L behind Albert Bartlett favourite Thyme Hill but he did finish 2nd to Edwardstone the race after. He’s already won a G1 and did it in decisive fashion but the second place Jeremy’s Flame was incredibly disappointing when favourite for a 24 runner race where it was not run to suit. There’s plenty of rain due for the first day which suits this gelding entirely, could be an outside shot at 13/2.
Captain Guinness has raced twice in his career and after his 7L debut success he took on Andy Dufresne in the Moscow Flyer and only lost out because of a slightly untidy jump at the last. The 16/1 price that’s mostly available is a fair price considering this gelding is completely unexposed and there’s no real guidelines as to whether he’ll be up for a race of this grade. Rachael Blackmore is on board today as she was in the previous race and in a bigger field, should help the horse settle a bit better. 16/1 is very reasonable.
Edwardstone is the last horse to touch on based on his form against the likes of Fiddlerontheroof and Harry Senior (9/1 for the Albert Bartlett), the Alan King trained gelding has been unfortunate to miss out in his last couple of races, getting pipped on the line by a stronger-staying Stolen Silver. Edwardstone beat Harry Senior by a length in December and the second placed horse has gone onto win a G2 comfortably and is expected to keep on improving. If Tom Cannon can drive this horse up the hill, there’s a good chance he can mix it with the market leaders.
ABRACADBRAS is the standout pick for this race and Skybet are also offering MONEY BACK IF YOU LOSE up to £10. At 6/1 and you can have your money back if it’s not to win, you simply have to make the most of it.
Liverpool look to re-extend their lead at the top of the league to 22 points in a game in which everything is in their favour. Liverpool face West Ham at Anfield, if they were to avoid defeat it’d be their 45th game unbeaten and moves them 5 away from overtaking Arsenal’s seemingly unbeatable record.
In recent years West Ham have been terrorised by Liverpool’s two main men, Salah and Mane. In the last 5 fixtures in all competitions between the sides, the duo have scored 9 goals between themselves and this has been in years where the Reds haven’t been the top of the pile. They’ve played 13 games at home so far in this PL season and they’ve won every single one of them whilst scoring the most home goals in the league (2.69 goals per home game).
West Ham are at the complete other end of the stick, they’re currently 18th in the league, they’ve scored the second least away goals this season, averaging 0.77 a game and have also continuously struggled this campaign. Their away form from the last 12 games in all competitions does not inspire much hope, they’ve picked up 3 wins with one of them against Chelsea but they’ve struggled in-front of goal. In that last 10, 8 of them have seen only one of the teams score.
Liverpool have not lost at home since a 3-2 defeat against Crystal Palace in April 2017 and seem a certainty to continue that pattern; but will be without captain Jordan Henderson this evening who has been heavily tipped to be the player of the season, fortunately the depth of the squad shouldn’t see that create an issue.
The reds also average a significant 6.78 corners per home game which establishes their dominance for possession as well, they average 62% a game. West Ham noticeably also give away 7.08 corners per away game which only adds to the expected onslaught in that area.
Liverpool will extend their lead tonight but there’s a lack of value in from the gambling aspect although below is something hand-picked to take all the value away for the night.
Price is accurate as of 7:15PM 24/02/2020, gamble responsibly.
United vs Chelsea is always a feisty affair but not always one for plenty of goals. In the previous 7 fixtures between the sides at Stamford Bridge both teams have scored in only 2 of them.
Chelsea’s home form has left a lot to be desired this campaign with 18 points from a possible 36 with a weak 16 goals scored in those fixtures. The bulk of the Blues form in the PL is away from home, they’ve scored 63% of their goals away from the Bridge but were very unfortunate to not win against Arsenal in their recent 2-2 draw against the 10 men Gunners. Chelsea have not lost in the Premier League against United since late 2012 in a thrilling 3-2 defeat.
United have been nothing short of disappointing this year and their away form is a massive factor in what has been a season to forget. On the road after 12 matches they’ve accumulated 12 points and only managed to grab 1 clean sheet. With the recent injury to Marcus Rashford they’ve continued to struggle and especially in front of goal. Anthony Martial has scored half of his 8 PL goals this season on their travels and will be the man to look to.
Tammy Abraham is not involved with the Chelsea squad tonight after picking up a knock and not passing fitness tests, Christian Pulisic is also struggling for match fitness and is missing. Scott McTominay and Paul Pogba are still side-lined and continue to be huge misses for the United midfield.
Nemanja Matic starts against his former club, returning from suspension. The Serbian has been carded in 2 of his last 3 fixtures against Chelsea at the Bridge and has been getting progressively more sluggish in his mature years. Jorginho has also tallied up 9 yellow cards this season and is also one away from suspension, Chelsea’s next game is at home against their top 4 rivals, Tottenham.
Chelsea look to have the better form coming into the game but it’s only marginal. United seem poorly equipped without Rashford’s presence and will struggle in front of goal; a cagey Chelsea win seems the most likely outcome.
A bet builder will be provided below with some of the evening’s most valuable stats, bet accordingly.
Due to the first ever Premier League winter break there’s a lack of top tier English football this weekend but there’s still fixtures from the three other major English leagues.
Brentford have been a promising team for a few years but haven’t quite seemed to live up to expectation but they are currently on the rise up the Championship and sit 6 points away from top position, West Brom. Ollie Watkins since arriving from Exeter in 2017 has managed to reach double digits every season but this year is looking like his breakout year, he’s scored 19 goals in 30 games so far and is a real driving force behind this dangerous offensive side. Middlesbrough, today’s opponents, have had a very rocky season in which they’ve managed to win 2 of their 14 away games and have lacked any form of consistency. Brentford at 1/2 could even be considered generous.
Stoke have had a shocking season and are sitting just above the relegation zone but their performances do not reflect their league position correctly. The bet365 stadium, (formerly the Britannia), has been a tough place to go to and even teams that are having good seasons have still come away with defeat. Stoke’s rough year has lowered their usual home form but they’re still pulling results out which should be enough against a currently weak, Charlton. In the Addicks last 11 away games they’ve picked up 3 points and conceded 2 or more in 9 of those games. Stoke should have enough.
Coventry have only lost 3 games in League One this season, which is the second least losses out of all the top 4 English leagues with the least being Liverpool. They’re against Bolton today, a team that have had their fair share of problems this season but even now they’ve got their usual squad available, they’re still having issues picking up points, especially away from home. The Trotters have scored 5 goals away from home in 11 games and conceded 34, an average of 3.1 a game. Coventry should be winning if they’re expecting to continue contending with the title front runners.
Portsmouth have recently embarked on a exceptional run of form, they’ve won 8 of their last 8 in all competitions and have steadily risen back into the top 6 of League One where they should be. Tranmere have the second worst home form in the league and with Portsmouth on a drastic upward curve it’s going to be a tough game for a team that’ve claimed 5 points out of their last 30, scoring only 6 goals in the process. Portsmouth would be considered my best bet of the day, the price of 8/13 is great but the 7/4 for Portsmouth -1 handicap is a mortgage job.
Newport are not an exception in what seems a reoccurring theme in this accumulator, they’re a team with a brilliant home record against Cambridge, a team that has a lot of trouble on the road. Newport a couple of weeks ago picked up a 2-0 win against current league leaders, Swindon and have only lost 2 of their 15 home games this year. Cambridge on the other hand are currently 12 games without an away win and do not look like having a reversal of fortune.
Today’s accumulator prices up at just below 10/1 and could be a nice way to earn £55 off of only a fiver.
Liverpool are adding to their ridiculous run of form on a week by week basis and the 42nd game of their unbeaten run sees them take on a revamped Southampton side who have picked up 19 of their 31 points in their last 10 games. They only managed to get 12 points in the previous 14 fixtures.
A surprise hero has been former Liverpool player Danny Ings, who has scored 14 goals in the league this season which is more than any of the Liverpool players. He’s personally scored 45% of Southampton’s league goals this season and if the Saints are to stand any chance, he will need to be on top form this afternoon.
Liverpool are undoubtedly proving themselves to be one of the best teams in the world if not the best with their current 41 game unbeaten streak that’s 8 games away from breaching Arsenal’s 49 game unbeaten record. The form they’re bringing to every game is making it impossible to oppose from a neutral perspective and they also go in search of their 54th unbeaten home game in a row. If you can consider it a negative, Liverpool have not scored more than 2 goals in a game since the calendar year started. To counteract that minute issue, they’ve managed to sure up their defensive line and kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 8 games in all competitions.
Sadio Mane got injured in Liverpool’s 2-1 win over Wolves and is without doubt, a huge loss and he’s also a former Southampton player that would’ve been facing his former club. Southampton have recently loaned out right back Cedric Soares who has taken part in 16 games this season but has been replaced by a loanee youngster from Tottenham named Kyle Walker-Peters who is an interesting acquisition. The 22-year-old Englishman has played 562 minutes in his short PL career but has managed to get an assist every 110 minutes, very close to one assist a game.
Alex McCarthy has been excellent between the sticks for Southampton, he’s been the starting goalkeeper for 12 games or so now and averages 3.12 saves a game which is hugely relevant for the amount of shots he’s bound to face. Southampton collectively been fantastic to watch rise through the struggles in recent months, they had their 9-0 home loss to Leicester and since have seen a real reversal of fortune. The last four away games for the Saints have brought themselves 4 wins, 2 of which were against Chelsea and considering the previous result, it was a shock to see them beat Leicester.
Ralph Hasenhüttl has incredibly got Southampton up to 9th but taking points from this current Liverpool side seems an impossible ask. Liverpool could definitely be vulnerable to conceding but the offensive power should overwhelm a substandard defence.
A 7/1 bet builder is provided below, stake is not shown, gamble respective to personal preference, price accurate as of 07:42 1/2/2020.
In the last couple of seasons Wolves have made themselves very difficult to play against, especially for the top 6, they’ve consistently taken points from any team they oppose. Liverpool are in form we’ve never seen the likes of in the Premier League with the Reds breaking records for their points tally after 22 games; they’ve got 64 points out of a possible 65 and it’s difficult to see a reason why they’d slow down.
Wolves look fully equipped to have a chance of at least taking points from the seemingly invincible Liverpool, they played at Anfield in late December and left after a 1-0 defeat but in the second half they looked very dangerous and caused a real threat. Wolves’ intense second halves are not uncommon either, they were 2-0 down at half time to Southampton last Saturday and snatched a 3-2 win; the same happened against Man City in December. Liverpool aren’t known for conceding many goals but it’s an undeniable threat.
Liverpool’s Achilles heel was their defensive record, but they’ve bucked their ideas up and haven’t conceded in the PL since December 4th in a 5-2 win in the Merseyside Derby and haven’t conceded in all competitions since December 18th in the Club World Cup vs Monterrey. Joe Gomez’ return from injury was the first game in this astonishing defensive run and his consistency at the back has been fantastic and he’s surely in the running for Southgate’s Euro squad.
In the last two meetings between the sides (2-0 and 1-0 Liverpool wins), Mane has scored all the goals. Raul Jimenez has scored 10 goals in the PL this season and he also scored in their 2-1 cup win last January at Molineux in this fixture, he’s always dangerous but with Liverpool’s current defensive prowess it’s going to be a tough ask for the Mexican.
Romain Saiss has acquired 8 yellow cards this season in 20 matches and should be in for another tough defensive display with the likes of Mane, Salah and Firmino running at him. There’s no significant injury problems for either side tonight so we’ll see a feisty affair with both teams fielding full strength XI’s.
Liverpool should yet again do the business but do not rule out Wolves as they’re deadly when put under pressure.
Here’s a selection for tonight’s game involving previously mentioned stats and scorers. Price accurate as of 7:48PM 23/1/2020.
A weekend with plenty of football and huge games is gasping for an accumulator to source the Saturday entertainment, the best value being in the lower English leagues.
Accrington to win against Southend
Accrington arrive into the game in 17th place sitting only 5 points above the relegation zone, but their opponents Southend are 23rd only 3 points ahead of point deducted Bolton. Southend have only managed to win 10 points out of a possible 75, conceding 65 goals- an average of 2.4 a game. Accrington, despite their league position have been quite dangerous of late, especially at home. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 which included thumping 4-1 and 7-1 wins over Portsmouth and Bolton. At an individual price of 8/13, it seems a solid selection.
Rotherham to win against Bristol Rovers
League One league leaders Rotherham have been in eye-catching goalscoring form recently with all of their last 7 games seeing the Millers score 2 or more goals and also scoring the most goals in League 1. Bristol Rovers have been doing quite the opposite, in their last 8 games in all competitions they’ve failed to score in 6, with 5 of them resulting in losses. Second place Wycombe play against Rochdale so Rotherham’s result is all the more vital to stay top, this could be a comfortable game.
Crewe both teams to score against Cheltenham
Crewe’s games are never a poor watch for any neutral with the Railwaymen’s recent 9 having both teams scoring. Crewe’s games in League Two average 3.2 goals a game and they’ve scored 3 or more goals in 5 of their last 7 home games. Cheltenham’s away form is quite dangerous, they’ve avoided defeat in 11 of their 13 league matches and have scored exactly a goal a game, they will undoubtedly put up a real battle against a currently thriving side.
Northampton to win against Morecambe
Northampton have been convincing at home with 6 out of the last 7 home matches ending in victory, one of which was against previously mentioned, high flying Crewe. Morecambe have struggled for a few seasons now, they’ve been consistently finishing low in the table and are 23rd, 3 points above bottom of the league, Stevenage. Their away form doesn’t seem to spark any enthusiasm either losing 6 of their last 7 away games and looking majorly vulnerable. You’d expect a Northampton win and all stats point to it.
Plymouth to win against Mansfield
Plymouth were backed in last week’s accumulator and they walked a 3-0 win with young Luke Jephcott scoring yet another brace since his return from his loan at Truro. Plymouth have continued their upward rise and Mansfield do not look like a team that would be capable of stopping them. Mansfield have only won 1 of their last 12 games in all competitions and have conceded 2 or more in 4 of their last 5 matches. Plymouth should capitalise and ride the wave of goals they’re currently on.
This accumulator prices up at just below 10/1 for what looks like a prime opportunity to win some weekend funds.
Price is accurate as of 18/01/2020- 01:40AM. Stakes not shown, gamble accordingly
What would a Saturday be without the football and a little wager to follow alongside? There’s 8 Premier League, 11 Championship, 11 League One and 11 League Two games and some cracking value for a nice accumulator.
Middlesbrough to win against Derby 3:00PM:
Middlesbrough are starting to sneak their way back up the Championship table after a really rocky start, something seems to have clicked and they’ve picked up wins against high flying Preston and West Brom, they also secured a replay against Tottenham in the FA Cup where Spurs fielded a very strong side. Ashley Fletcher has really picked up in recent weeks with 3 goals in 5 games and will be a threat to Derby’s already horrendous away form. Derby picked up a win against Crystal Palace in the FA Cup but prior to that had only managed 3 points away from home out of the last possible 36, they’ve picked up 7 points in the league on the road and only scored 8 goals. It looks straight forward for Middlesbrough.
Hull vs Fulham- Both Teams to Score 3:00PM:
This game looks to have goals written all over it with both of the Championship’s top goalscorers playing for either side. Jarrod Bowen and Alexsandar Mitrovic have scored 17 and 18 goals respectively and are parts of sides that do not shy away from goal fests. In the Championship, Hull’s games have had over 2.5 goals in 17 of the 26 and Fulham have had the same in 15 fixtures, both teams averaging above 2.7 goals a game. There are goals here, simple as that.
Burton vs Fleetwood- Both Teams to Score 3:00PM:
Burton’s recent selection of results has seen plenty of goals, in their last 16 games there’s only been 2 finish with less than 2 goals. Fleetwood find themselves just outside the play-offs and since the start of the season have only not scored away from home on one occasion, that being in the first month of the season vs Lincoln. Joey Barton’s side have seen 39 goals in their 10 games on the road and with the likes of Paddy Madden leading the line on 13 goals this season, it’d be a surprise to see a tame game here.
Plymouth to win away at Carlisle 3:00PM:
Plymouth were one of the antepost favourites for the title this season and had a slightly problematic start to the season but in the recent 15 games in League Two they’re second on the form table. Plymouth are also coming off of a win away at Scunthorpe who themselves in recent weeks have turned the tables on their poor start to the season and 19 year old Luke Jephcott scored 2 goals in his first game since being recalled from his loan at Conference south Truro. Carlisle have conceded the third most goals in League Two and look vulnerable to a Pilgrims’ side on the rise.
Swindon vs Crewe- Both Teams to Score 3:00PM
Swindon host Crewe at the County Ground in a 1st vs 3rd clash, Crewe have 2 games in hand and a win here would give them the upper hand in the title race. Eoin Doyle has been simply exceptional for Swindon and has scored 23 goals in his 22 league games, he’s seemingly unstoppable and Crewe average over a goal a game conceded. Swindon also average over a goal a game conceded and, in this fixture’s, recent meeting there’s been 32 goals in the last 7 games. It’s an ongoing theme for the bet but, there’s going to be goals.
At the start of the season you’d have imagined the current PL positions of both sides would be the other way around. Sheffield United are currently 8th in the table and West Ham are 16th but there’s potential for West Ham’s fortunes in particular to change.
David Moyes’ appointment seems to have given West Ham a new style of play and has given the Hammers life with 2 wins from 2, a 4-0 win against Bournemouth and a 2-0 away win at Gillingham and has also potentially revived the out of form forwards. Felipe Anderson prior to Moyes hadn’t contributed a goal all season but registered his first goal of the season in the Bournemouth win, last season he scored 9 in total and West Ham could really do with him finding some real form.
West Ham’s position in the table is poorly reflected with the main bulk of their issues coming from Fabianski being injured and being forced to play inexperienced goalkeepers but they also have had a problem with scoring goals. In the 2010’s West Ham’s top goalscorer in one season was Arnautovic who scored 11 goals, no player managed to score more PL goals in one season than him which doesn’t quite cut it with teams around them having proven goalscorers banging them in.
Sheffield United have proven their well drilled consistency this season but it could be said they’re starting to slip slightly, they’ve started slipping clean sheets away in recent weeks and in the last 10 games they’ve conceded 13 goals. In usual circumstances, that’s a very reasonable amount of goals conceded but they only let in 8 in their first 11 PL games this year. The bar that Chris Wilder’s side have set has given them an outside shot of European football so the recent slack defending could be a niggling worry.
The Blades consistently select the same defensive setup with Baldock, O’Connell and Stevens playing every single minute so far this season, Henderson and Basham have missed less than 90 minutes each. It’ll be nothing short of impressive if all of those players are able to play every minute of every game but it could play a factor in the potential decline of Sheffield United in coming months. The main form of the Blades tends to come away from home with 15 of their 29 points coming away from Bramall Lane, they’ve also lost double the amount of home games than away games.
Robert Snodgrass and Declan Rice are both one booking away from suspension as are a few Sheffield United players: Stevens, Baldock, Lundstram, Basham and Norwood being the affected. Injury-wise Aaron Cresswell is nursing a knock but could well be in the squad, Ryan Fredericks is ruled out with a hamstring injury and Hammers’ skipper Mark Noble also has a knock to comprehend.
The reverse fixture in October was 1-1 at the Olympic Stadium and I’d expect the same tonight. Moyes has galvanized West Ham but Sheffield United’s stubborn setup alongside West Ham’s shoddy offensive threat seems like it should fizzle out to an even ending.
There’s not much joy in the markets for wagers, especially with both teams having goal issues but there’s plenty of value in the card markets. Here’s something that’s overpriced that could be a nice earner.
Now this is a proper Super Sunday and the last one of the decade.
Arsenal host Chelsea in a game where if the teams around them were to win, they could drop as low as 15th with less than half of the season to go. Pierre Emerick Aubameyang scored on his first appearance under Mikel Arteta, the Gabonese international is currently the second goal top goalscorer in the PL behind Vardy and is always capable of capitalising on the smallest lapses of concentration which are not infrequent in the inexperienced Chelsea defence.
Tammy Abraham has been in a slight rut by his high standards this season, he’s scored 3 in his last 9 appearances in all competitions, but Chelsea haven’t been quite as fluent going forward as they have in recent months, especially in the recent 2-0 defeat to Southampton. The Blues looked very deflated and lacked urgency, the only shining light was Mason Mount’s contribution when he came off the bench at half time. Mount looked excellent and created a key chance 13 seconds after coming onto the pitch and really should be getting game time from the start today.
Prior to Arsenal’s 3-0 home defeat to City, they had scored in every single home game since December 19th, 2018 where they lost at home to Spurs. On the other hand, Chelsea have scored in all away games since the first game of the season where they got hammered by Man United.
It’s clear that both sides have got issues of late but Arsenal’s current state of affairs and their 1 win in their last 14 makes them look vulnerable against a Chelsea side that played Spurs off the park last week. Chelsea are available at a rough price of 5/4 and both teams to score is 1/2, both of which represent decent value.
Everything surrounding Liverpool at the moment is regarding the title they look certain to win and the imminent threat to Arsenal’s 49 game unbeaten run, but todays opposition Wolves are coming off the back of a heroic 3-2 win after being 2-0 down against Man City. Wolves victory did not in anyway come as any huge surprise as City’s defensive issues have been sizeable and Wolves have been terrific this year anyway. Nuno’s side have the Europa League in their agenda and they’re still able to perform at such a good level in the PL, they’re sitting in 7th but a win would take them up to 4th with 33 points.
Liverpool’s previous win was a thumping victory over Leicester where Trent Alexander-Arnold ran the show. The English right back claimed 3 assists and also scored a pretty tidy goal as well, he’s proving at a consistent level that he’s one of the worlds best and there’s not many players that can distribute a pass or create a goal to the standard he can. A win for Liverpool would put them 13 points clear with a game in hand over the following pack. The Reds also have managed to improve their defensive third with 5 clean sheets in their last 7 games as opposed to 0 in the 7 before that.
Unfortunately for neutral football fans, wanting a competitive title race, this game will not make much difference. Wolves can always be dangerous against the big teams as City learned but Liverpool do not seem to be making those kinds of mistakes.
Manchester City aren’t quite the dominant force of last season’s title winners that finished on 98 out of a possible of 114, they’ve already dropped 19 points from a possible 57 this season. The injury to Aymeric Laporte set City quite far back this season and they have not been able to recover from the massive gap he has left in the defence. Ederson got sent off in their match against Wolves in the 12th minute which has earned him a 3-game suspension, leaving City with Claudio Bravo. Man City have already conceded 6 more goals than they did in the entirety of last season and have acquired 1 clean sheet out of their last possible 14. Tonight’s opponents had minimal expectation for the season and have been heads and shoulders above what could possibly have been anticipated.
Sheffield United were antepost favourites to be relegated and to finish bottom but instead see themselves challenging in the European spots, tonight would be a huge scalp over a team that are almost guaranteed to have ¾ of the possession. Their real success story has been the defensive stubbornness that Chris Wilder has embedded into his squad but there is a problem with the lack of offensive threat. Lys Mousset is the Blades’ top goal scorer with 5 but recently he’s been a player that makes appearances from the bench.
All previous meetings in Manchester between the sides took place in a 7-year timeframe between 1999-2006 and have ended 0-0 but with both teams prowess towards both ends of the pitch in modern times it could be deemed an unlikely outcome. City will need a win more than anything at the moment and will be looking to bounce back from the disappointing result against Wolves, so a cagey City win seems about right.
Here’s a little accumulator that involves the 3 games and incorporates some of the mentioned picks, bet accordingly. If you’re interested in any other selections, follow me on my social media links that will be provided below this piece.
Despite this game not involving Liverpool, who currently sit top of the Premier League it could be the game to really decide the title, even as early as December. A win for Leicester would see them stay 10 points behind (providing Liverpool win), if not they’ll find themselves 12 or 13 points behind with 20 games to go. Man City are 4 points behind Leicester prior to tonight so a win would potentially reduce the gap to 11 points which still is a tough task.
In last year’s meetings between the sides, each team won their respective home fixtures and this exact game near enough secured City the league after a Vincent Kompany wondergoal. As previously mentioned, this game has a very different situation surrounding it but both teams are in great form and nothing can be expected another than goals.
Vincent Kompany’s vital goal 6/5/19 in a Manchester City 1-0 win over Leicester
In the last 10 matches in all competitions City have had over 2.5 goals in 8 of those with both teams scoring in 9. Kevin De Bruyne has been the driving force behind City’s current form with the recent absence of Sergio Aguero (groin), but the Argentine looks to be returning in the coming week or so but would be expected to have a bench role today. De Bruyne has arguably been player of the season so far with 6 goals and 11 assists and simply ran the show against Arsenal in the 3-0 win last weekend. Similar can be said about Jamie Vardy’s influence for Leicester.
Vardy is the PL top goalscorer currently with 16 goals in 16 appearances and is clearly in electrifying form but did draw a blank vs relegation threatened Norwich. Leicester came into the game against the Canaries on an 8-game win streak where they faltered and drew which is inexcusable with the bar they’ve set already. Even with Vardy’s prowess offensively, Leicester’s defence has been superb. The Foxes have only conceded 11 goals in the Premier League which equivalates to 0.64 goals a game but, they have not kept a clean sheet away against City since 2003.
Injury-wise there’s no injuries for Leicester to worry about and for City Aguero’s on the way back. Aymeric Laporte is still sidelined and has shown how large a miss he’s been for them with City’s defence looking more vulnerable than ever. Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva and Rodri are all on 4 PL yellow cards which makes them 1 away from suspension coming into the busiest time of the season.
This game is bound to be a cracker and it’s huge for several reasons. There’s going to be plenty of action, cards and drama so here’s a little pick wager-wise.
This bet is available with bet365. Price is accurate as of 12:45PM 21/12/19. Stake is not shown, bet responsibly
Please bear in mind it’s the time of year where rotation is prominent, this is purely based on personal thoughts.
In the grand scheme of things this game doesn’t have huge relevance as both teams have secured qualification. A win for AZ will win them the group but a draw or United win will see the group placings stay as they were with United topping Group L. With the likes of Inter, Salzburg and last year’s Champions League semi-finalists Ajax dropping into the Europa League, neither team should be resting their squad to avoid a second-place finish and a potentially tough match up.
Man United have really turned a corner of late with back to back 2-1 wins, firstly at home to Spurs and magnificently, away in the Manchester derby. Marcus Rashford has been a driving force in what seems to be a progressing United team, he’s scored 13 in his last 14 games for club and country and threatens every single game since being moved onto the left side, where he’s most deadly.
In this year’s group United have scored an average of 1.2 goals a game and 0.4 conceded on average too which conflicts with their last 10 results. In the last 10 games they’ve had 9 finish with over 2.5 goals, 8 of which both teams have scored in. AZ have also had 9 out of the last 10 games end with over 2.5 goals but in only 2 of them both teams have scored, partially because of how brilliant they’ve been.
AZ Alkmaar have won 8 of their last 9 games with clean sheets in each of them, the only goals they’ve conceded have been in the draw against Partizan in the previous EL game, otherwise they’ve been rock solid. In their last 3 EL games they’ve had a total of 66 shots and scored 13 of them, they’re clearly going to be a threat to the United backline that struggles with clean sheets.
Myron Boadu is AZ’s top goal scorer in the Europa league this season and the promising 18 year old has scored 16 goals in all competitions, unfortunately he’s suspended tonight which leaves the offensive reins with Oussama Idrissi who’s scored 3 in this season’s competition and also scored 3 in his last 4 appearances. The goalscoring ability seems to be embedded in Arne Slot’s team and with United’s current offensive prowess and lack of clean sheets, tonight looks like a goal fest.
Marcus Rashford is the leading man for tonight, his world class ability should be way too much for AZ, he looks bound to score and so do AZ. For the evening’s selection there’s exceptional value.
Rashford to score and both teams to score is 15/8 at the time of writing which simply must be snapped up.
A Thursday evening fixture in the Premier League makes you truly realise we’re into the Christmas month and the games come quicker than usual which makes brilliant viewing for avid football fans.
Sheffield United take on Newcastle at Bramall Lane where a win would put them back up to 6th place with 40% of the season played. Before this season began, Sheffield United’s lack of Premier League experience and style of play looked to be setting them up for a difficult year but they’re really proving all the doubters wrong and are true candidates for a potential European finish, but there’s 72 points left up for grabs with plenty of potential for it to change.
Lys Mousset made a transfer from Bournemouth to the Blades for a club record fee of £10 million which at the time was baffling due to Mousset’s record in the PL and general performances. The Frenchman had scored 3 goals in 58 appearances for Bournemouth but upon arrival has looked like a completely different player, he’s scored 4 in his last 6 PL games and contributed a further 3 assists.
Wilder’s real success in managing Sheffield United has been the defensive stubbornness, at the time of writing they’ve conceded the second least goals in the league only to Leicester and incredibly, have a better defensive record than Liverpool. The players have been marvellous, but much of the credit will go to Chris Wilder for his tactics regarding the setup in a team that very rarely changes and has a staple core.
George Baldock, John Lundstram and John Fleck are currently all on four bookings each and one away from a potential suspension which could rock the boat. The next four fixtures for the Blades are all against teams in the current bottom 5 though, which could easily set the tone for the second half of the season.
Newcastle, similar to Sheffield United, had no real pressure on the season ahead following the appointment of Bruce who was almost expected to fail. The Magpies have collected 6 points from a possible 21 on the road this season which of course is not fantastic; but they have faced the likes of Spurs, Chelsea, Leicester, Liverpool and West Ham. Surprisingly, the wins have come against West Ham and Spurs, but Newcastle have a way of defending against the big teams that really does seem to work, it’s just offensively they’re hugely lacking.
Newcastle have scored a total of 13 goals in their 14 PL games so far, 8 of them have come from defensive players and considering they spent £55 million on Saint-Maximin and Joelinton, that’s simply not good enough. Joelinton has scored 1 goal in his time at Tyneside so far which way back in August and hasn’t looked like changing that anytime soon. Miguel Almiron was signed last season for £21 million and has not scored, and only provided 1 assist in his 24 PL appearances.
The saving grace is Martin Dubravka in goal, he faces an exceptional amount of shots being in a team that sits back and welcomes attacks. He’s made an average of 3.65 saves a game in total this season, which equates to 51 overall. If it wasn’t for his services, Newcastle would surely be pinned to the relegation zone.
Sheffield United look way too strong and are riding a wave of excellent form coming into tonight’s fixture, a home win looks on the cards and a clean sheet seems probable.
Sheffield United to win and BTTS- No is roughly available at 7/4 with most bookmakers.
Below is also a suggested bet builder with bet365 with a couple of fancies for goalscorers and cards.
This game for Arsenal is the start of another era at the football club, Emery’s sacking came very quickly after a draw at the weekend to Southampton and a loss in midweek to Frankfurt which was by no means surprising.
Freddie Ljungberg takes over temporarily as the list of available replacements stacks up, the Swede knows the club very well and he was of course part of the real Arsenal glory days. If you see the likes of Chelsea and United hiring club legends it seems to really change the mentality of the club and since Wenger, Arsenal have been crying out for someone to take the reins and redirect what is a struggling club.
Arsenal’s problems seem to be stemming defensively but they do have the options to perform well and just haven’t been doing so. Arsenal’s away record is miles away from where it should be for a team with Champions League aspirations, they’ve only won one away game this season and that was way back on the first day of the season at St James Park. They’re also only won one game in their last nine which was a scrappy win in the Europa League against Guimaraes with two late free-kicks from Nicolas Pepe.
Norwich, prior to their 2-0 win against Everton at the weekend were in a major slump of form which saw them pick up 4 points from a possible 33, conceding an average of 2.18 goals a game across the fixtures. Teemu Pukki started the season fantastically well scoring six goals in his first five PL games but has drawn a blank in the eight matches since and has gone off the boil alongside the Canaries.
Todd Cantwell has shown glimmers of hope but has picked up a knock and is an injury doubt for today’s game, as are David Luiz and Hector Bellerin who’ve both got minor problems that may rule them out today.
Arsenal should have the strength to dispose of Norwich today with the new manager factor added, but if it’s the squad that’s the problem then Arsenal could be in for a very difficult game. You simply cannot ignore that Norwich beat Man City earlier on in the season at home, this game looks bound to have plenty of goals, and a result-based selection would be too difficult to choose.
I’d suggest a bet builder for a game in which should have goals, cards and pure drama.
A huge game
in group H sees Valencia take on Chelsea in a game which could secure
qualification to the next round for one of the sides. Ajax, Valencia and
Chelsea are all on 7 points with Ajax’s fixture looking like a potential win
which would mount all pressure upon these two sides.
The
previous meeting in England was a 1-0 win in favour of the Spaniards, which was
arguably against the run of play, but in the history of the two clubs Chelsea
have never lost at the Mestalla. Previous meetings have included two draws and
one win in favour of the Blues but none of those fixtures have taken place
within the last 9 years.
Chelsea are
an exceptional side on the road this season and have won 7 of their last 8 away
games and scored 22 goals, the only real problem being their lack of a main
Goalscorer in the Europa League. Tammy Abraham has scored 3 goals in his last
10 matches and has 1 in 4 in this years Champions League, but has the ability
to snap back into form based on this season’s exploits, Chelsea seem bound to
score on paper it’s just a matter of who it shall be.
Valencia
have had a mixed group stage so far with their two most recent fixtures being a
4-1 win at home to Lille and previously a hefty 3-0 home defeat at the hands of
group leaders, Ajax. Unfortunately, like Chelsea they also have a goal-based
issue, in all competitions this season their top goal scorer is Dani Parejo
with 7 goals, with 6 of those coming from the spot. The Spanish side have also
had goals come within the first 25 minutes in each of their last 4 UCL home
games, Chelsea have scored prior to that minute in 2 of their last 3 UCL
fixtures.
Chelsea
seem the more likely team to come out on top tonight but from a betting
perspective there is some nice prices about.
Chelsea to
score a penalty is generally available at around 6/1 and Valencia to do the
same is roughly 8/1.
Liverpool v Napoli
Liverpool
play against one of their seemingly, bogey teams tonight. Napoli have beaten
Liverpool in their last two fixtures with comprehensive 2 and 3-0 victories,
with the 2-0 being in the reverse fixture with both goals being scored in the
final 10 minutes. Since that meeting, Liverpool have gone on a 13-game unbeaten
streak including 12 wins, Napoli on the other hand have gone in quite the
opposite direction.
Gli Azzurri
have won 4 of their 13 games since their victory over Liverpool and haven’t had
a win in their last 6 in all competitions. They really seem to be struggling
for form in recent weeks with the likes of main talisman, Dries Mertens scoring
2 in his last 14 matches for club and country and being far from in form.
Liverpool
are playing drastically different to the Italian side with recent results
seeing them soar through every tournament they take place in; they’ve won all
of their last 10 home games with an abundance of goals; each game seeing
Liverpool score two or more. The major downside to such a terrific run is that
Liverpool have not kept a clean sheet in any one of their last 10 home games
which seems to be a burden they cannot shake off.
Alex
Oxlade-Chamberlain has been on fire as of late, bagging 5 goals in his last 6
from midfield and has grabbed 3 of those in his last 2 UCL appearances, both
against Genk. He will be looking to add further goals to his tally tonight to
win Liverpool Group E with a game to spare.
For the
evening there’s undoubtedly plenty of value, Liverpool to win with both teams
to score is superb value at 7/4, that selection has came in for their last 10
home games.
The Ox to
score and Liverpool to win is also at the 3/1 mark.
2 English
teams and a probable 2 further wins, a good night for the Brits.
The big
talking point of arguably the year is the appointment of Mourinho at Spurs.
There’s absolutely no doubting the quality that Mourinho has previously brought
to the Premier League, his serial winning is contagious and considering the squad
he’s inheriting you’d expect him to carry it across, but does he really suit
Tottenham?
Mauricio
Pochettino’s five-and-a-half-year tenure in North London didn’t result in any
trophies but it did build a team that’s flourished and became a staple in the
top 4. In the last decade Tottenham have had four finishes outside of the top
4, three of which were before Poch’s arrival prior to the 14/15 season. The
Argentine’s first year in charge saw Spurs finish in 5th but the four
seasons since have all been magnificent with two 3rd place finishes,
a 2nd place and a Champions League runners-up medal.
It goes without
saying there has been clear progression in the Tottenham side under Pochettino and
especially with Harry Kane who started his drastic change into the player he is
today. The England captain had made 11 appearances for Spurs amongst a
variation of loan spells and began to blossom when Pochettino took over and has
since won golden boots domestically and internationally. Harry has also expressed
his appreciation and love for his management via twitter with a very heartfelt
tweet.
Gaffer. I’ll be forever thankful to you for helping me achieve my dreams. We’ve had some amazing moments in the last 5 and a half years that I will never forget. You were my manager but my friend as well and I thank you for that relationship. Good luck with your next chapter! 💙 pic.twitter.com/u64RXV7wd4
It doesn’t take a genius to realise that the appointment of Mourinho
had been in the works for a while with the announcement of his arrival coming
11 hours after the departure of Mauricio, Daniel Levy clearly had a plan in mind
and executed it as soon as he was able to.
Mourinho is going to bring a completely different mentality
to the Tottenham side and his talks with the squad during his first training
session have been publicised where he centred it around how he will turn the
team into winners.
ESPN understand Jose Mourinho stood in front of the Tottenham Hotspur players at the beginning of training yesterday and told them: “back me and I’ll make you winners.” #THFCpic.twitter.com/PMsrLPwwa9
Jose has been notorious over the years for his “boring” style
of play, but you simply cannot argue with the stats, in 19 years of management he’s
won 19 trophies in 4 different countries, including 8 domestic titles, 2 Champions
Leagues and 2 Europa League titles. There’s a certain charisma that Jose brings
to football that removes the “boring” element of his footballing game and makes
any club he’s at, an exciting one to follow. In comparison, Spurs have won 17 top
tier trophies in their HISTORY with only 2 in the last 20 years, both being League
cups.
The appointment being good for Spurs is hard to say, Jose’s great
for short term success but the way in which Spurs have gone about business in
recent years is as if they’re building for a better future which is not at all
Jose’s usual approach. As a football fan it’s an exciting time to be watching Spurs
but it’s a worrying time to be a fan of the club. The philosophies of Mourinho
do not cater to youth and it’s something that you’d like to imagine has changed
after watching the likes of Chelsea thrive under an academy driven squad.
Something had to change after Spurs’ start to this season and
a new manager always tends to be the way clubs go about things, but this time it
could really cost Tottenham.
samyets 