It’s the final day of this year’s Royal Ascot festival and the focus is on the St James’ Palace Stakes where Pinatubo and Wichita re-oppose after the 2000 Guineas which saw Kameko win infront of Wichita in 2nd and Pinatubo in 3rd. Kameko’s form is vital to this race as this race regularly features horses that compete in that race as it’s over the same distance with the same age horses at the top level. The 2000 Guineas was run on the 6th of June and Kameko set the record for the quickest time it’s ever been finished in, beating Mister Baileys record that had been held since 1994 where Jason Weaver was on board- the record was beaten by 36 tenths of a second.
Pinatubo is the expected favourite based on his outstanding 2 year old form, the Godolphin colt won 6 of 6 last season including the Chesham Stakes, Dewhurst Stakes and a Group 1 at the Curragh. The only blemish on his perfect career was his 3rd in the 2000 Guineas which was arguably unsuited on the good to firm ground, all of Pinatubo’s winning has been done between good and soft. The sole Godolphin representative in the race is hoping to follow in the steps of 2017 winner Barney Roy and Sharmadal in 2005 who hold the quickest times for this race, notably Sharmadal is Pinatubo’s sire and after seeing the speed the 2000 Guineas was completed in- Pinatubo could be looking to take his sire’s record today. Deserved favourite.
Wichita is one of two horses that have finished ahead of Pinatubo and after a 7 length win at Newmarket a lot was expected for the Dewhurst Stakes where Pinatubo eventually finished 4 ¾ lengths ahead. If you skip 8 months ahead, last week’s 2000 Guineas was a surprise reversal of form where Frankie Dettori took the ride and only got caught close home by Kameko. Aidan O’Brien has won 2 of the last 5 runnings of this race where today’s jockey Ryan Moore was on board aswell, Moore was also the winning jockey for Circus Maximus’ success in this race last year. O’Brien is the record holder for the most wins in this race (8) and has 3 of today’s 7 entries. After the 2000 Guineas, this promising colt stands a very good chance if replicating that form.
The big unknown for the race is the chance of the Gosden yard, Palace Pier. This Kingman colt brings the only unbeaten record into the race and has shown very impressive turns of foot towards the end of his races winning by a minimum of 3 ¾ lengths in each of his 3 victories. On his reappearance he was introduced at the highest level he’s run at so far and cosily won over a mile at Newcastle’s AW course, the worry is whether he can transfer that form back to turf. The colt hasn’t raced at the highest level yet and this is considerably deeper waters but with the services of Dettori on board he’ll stand his best chance. The win at Newcastle he took a while to get the better of Acquitted who went off 6/1 for the first race of the festival but didn’t look right and trailed in last. The 4/1 rough price for this colt is too short for me.
Threat is Oisin Murphy’s mount who had a fantastic day yesterday with 3 places and a win after a couple of average days by his standard prior to that. Hannon’s horse has been tried mostly at 6f so this step up to the extended 7 furlongs will be his longest trip yet. The Juddmonte Stakes was the last time we saw Threat on a track over what looked an inadequate 6f, leading to believe that a step up is required, the lack of a recent run could be a problem though, he’s one of two in this race that hasn’t had a pipe opener this season. The only time Murphy has been on board ended in a victory over 6f at York too, it’s not ideal to be coming into a race fresh when it’s of this calibre.
Clive Cox’s runner Positive has won twice and lost twice so far and both losses have been behind Pinatubo but in August last year he did beat the 2000 Guineas winner, Kameko. 10 months has passed since that win and it’s hard to hang onto that form when Kameko has improved every single race and we haven’t seen much of this colt. Clive Cox’s horses look to be running well after the resumption though with 3 winners from his last 7, one of them being the Commonwealth Cup winner Golden Horde who blitzed the field yesterday afternoon. It’s hard to speak highly of the chances of this horse especially since he’s the other horse without a recent run.
Arizona has been handed to Sean Levey for the first time due to Ryan Moore jumping ship to Wichita and he hasn’t had a great Ascot so far- he’s only finished in the top half of the field in 2 of his 10 rides so far. Arizona beat Threat in last season’s Coventry Stakes over 6f and was also only 2 lengths behind Pinatubo last October when he was infront of Wichita too. The reason behind the rough 22/1 price is the unproven 1 mile trip, he’s had 2 tries over it so far and finished 5th in America when he went off 2/1 favourite and a 19 ½ length 11th in the 2000 Guineas. His sister was a 8.5f winner in the US so there’s stamina in the family, it’d be a shock to see him win but he could get involved at a price.
Finally the outsider and another O’Brien trained horse Royal Dornoch could be the pace option to set the race up for Wichita. He, like a few others, beat Kameko in his 2 year old season but it was over the mile so the form is arguably not to be ignored, the race prior to that he finished stone last behind Threat so the inconsistency is there. His return finished in a 19 length defeat to Kameko where he finished one place ahead of Arizona, not much to be expected after that effort and he hasn’t really improved since his wins.
PINATUBO looks to return to winning ways and looks ready to do so, available at around 13/8 at the time of writing and looks worth snapping up. The SP favourite of this race has also won 6 out of the last 10 runnings.
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