Today marks day one of quite a surreal Royal Ascot meeting because it will not be open to the public. Our focus is on the second race at 13:50, the Queen Anne Stakes. The race is held over Ascot’s straight 1 mile track and originated in 1840, it was named the Queen Anne Stakes in 1930 after the founder of the racecourse. In the last decade there hasn’t been a single trainer win the race twice and if Frankie Dettori wins, he’ll break a record and become the first jockey to have won the race seven times.
The favourite for the race is currently Aidan O’Brien trained Circus Maximus, the winner of last season’s St James Palace Stakes and is partnered by the same jockey, Ryan Moore. The colt won his last European start in France at the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp ahead of the Irish 2000 Guineas winner and further highly regarded horses, he then travelled to Santa Anita to compete in the Breeders Cup where he lost out on a place on the line. This globetrotter is more than capable of competing at the highest level as he’s proven and also won on last season’s reappearance from a similar length break, worthy favourite.
Frankie Dettori’s potentially record breaking ride is aboard one of only two female horses in this year’s renewal, Terebellum. Dettori picked up the ride for Godolphin to gain their first joint success in 8 years, prior to that he had 942 wins for the stable and he gained his 943rd at Newmarket in the Dahlia Stakes over 1m2f. This filly has the advantage of a recent run over the majority of the field and is also trying her luck over 1 mile for the first time in her career, she also has only ran at the top level once- finishing 5th in France last October. Frankie also said in an interview that she only got a little tired in her win because it was her first run out this year on grass so there’s clearly more to come.
Representing the King Power stable is Fox Chairman with former champion jockey Silvestre De Sousa on board. This Kingman colt has had a fair chunk of misfortune in recent times despite having progressive form, he finished 3rd behind Circus Maximus at Chester last May when he had a troubled passage whilst travelling at the back of the field and suffered a similar fate in last years Hampton Court Stakes when 2nd behind Sangarius. It’s quite difficult to gage the potential of this horse as he’s not had a clear effort at the finish in any of his big races and he’s also dropping down to a mile for the first time since his 4L debut success at the trip. Interesting.
Duke of Hazzard is trained by Paul and Oliver Cole and comes from a relatively small stable in consideration to his main competitors. The stable star rattled off a hat-trick in his last 3 runs of the season and has clearly relished the step back up to 1m after his 5th of 18 in the Jersey Stakes at this course over 7 furlongs. The colt also finished 3rd in 2018’s Chesham Stakes over 7f so has form at this track, so it’s interesting to see whether the straight mile of Ascot will bring out improvement. He is also re-opposing Turjomaan (25/1), who has David Egan on board for the first time and that horse is taking a big step up in grade.
The horse at the top of the RPR’s and official ratings is Mustashry, who also happens to be the oldest horse in the field at the age of 7 and has the services of Dane O’Neill who picks up the ride on this horse for only the third time in 4 years. The time he was on board four years ago, the pairing won over C+D at 8/1 and this will be the horses third attempt at this C+D having finished 7th in this race last year. Mustashry’s last start was over 7f and disposed of Limato by 1 ¼ lengths, a trip he’s got a 100% win rate at, the return to 1 mile is not a bad thing but Jim Crowley jumping ship to Mohaather could be.
The Marcus Tregoning trained colt Mohaather is one of the most unexposed horses in this race, he’s only had 5 career starts, winning 3 of them and 2 of them at a graded level. The yard since the resumption of racing has only had 10 runners with 4 of them being winners, a 40% win rate is not one to be ignored. In addition the horse has only run over a mile once in his short career so far which was over this C+D where he finished a respectable 5th in the QEII. It’s also a shame we didn’t get to see him in last year’s Guineas due to a setback but today will really show us what this potentially top class colt can do.
Skardu had bags of potential coming into last season on the back of two impressive wins in his first two races. He then followed up with a 3rd in the 2000 Guineas and a 4th in the Irish 2000 Guineas and finally a 4th in the St James Palace Stakes behind eventual winner the re-opposing, Circus Maximus. The William Haggas trained horse will have the services of regular rider, James Doyle who was on board for those big races previously mentioned. After a 2 month break after his Ascot run, he finished 4th behind Duke of Hazzard but it’s very likely there’s more to come and Doyle is the man to do it. The 10 month break could possibly be a bit of a worry though, frame claims.
Andrea Atzeni’s mount is Roseman, another Kingman colt with a very similar profile to Fox Chairman. On his most recent start he finished 4 ½ lengths ahead of Century Dream but the ground was a lot heavier than is expected today. Century Dream’s reappearance this week saw a victory ahead of King of Comedy by 1 ½ lengths, a very impressive performance that has franked the form if Roger Varian has Roseman ready for this. The colt’s only appearance at Ascot was in behind Fox Chairman in last season’s Hampton Court Stakes over a longer trip, this is a horse to keep an eye on at a bigger price, especially if there’s a fair bit of rain.
The shock 66/1 winner of the 2018 1000 Guineas, Billesdon Brook is a consistent performer at the very highest level and has also had a recent run on the AW when finishing 3/4 of a length behind the current Duke of Cambridge Stakes favourite, Nazeef. Sean Levey’s regular mount also won a group 1 race at Newmarket in front of some very good horses (Lavenders Blue, Iridessa, Laurens). This mare is suited to a bigger field and has proved it by winning 4 of her 7 victories in races with more than 14 horses. Richard Hannon’s mare looks to be of excellent value at roughly 20/1 at the time of writing.
The remainder of the field include Space Traveller who looks the pick of the rest, last year’s Jersey Stakes winner has Daniel Tudhope on board and he guided Lord Glitters to success in this race last year. The horse never seems to be far away from the frame since being moved up in trip to 7f and above, a price of 25/1 could be very good.
Plumatic hails from the French yard of F H Graffard, he’s only raced once in the UK in an ordinary group 3 at Salisbury where he came away victorious and he’s also a group 2 winner in France, the booking of Oisin Murphy to ride is something to note.
Bless Him beat Lord North and Solid Stone in 2 of his victories at the end of last season, both of those horses have won nicely on their seasonal reappearances but at the time he had Jamie Spencer on board (currently sidelined through injury). In his first race back he finished a distant 7th behind Marie’s Diamond who slipped the field and ran away a ready winner in a listed event at Newmarket last week. The even steeper waters for both horses does not look ideal.
The remaining two in this year’s Queen Anne field include a previous winner of the race and a horse owned by last year’s winning trainer. Escobar is the sole representative from David O’Meara’s yard and he’s the trainer of last year’s winner- Lord Glitters. Escobar won a 20 runner race over C+D but that was with heavy ground, his reappearance saw him finish dead last in the race won by Marie’s Diamond. Finally, Accidental Agent, the winner of the 2018 Queen Anne Stakes is a rank outsider with prices of roughly 66/1 and hasn’t won since that victory. The horse was intended to defend his crown last season but refused to race as he occasionally will and the form ever since the win has not been anywhere near the standard required.
This year’s Queen Anne has lots of options in regards to a bet, a few bookmakers have provided some excellent options and offers aswell.
PADDY POWER are offering a £5 free bet for this race and SKYBET are offering money back if your pick was to finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th. Paddy Power’s option requires no stake at all so it’s there to be used, but Skybet is where I’ll be putting my money.
Billesdon Brook’s big field form and consistency cannot be ignored and at a price of 20/1, the value is screaming out. Roseman also stands a very good chance and the favourite Circus Maximus is of course a big danger.
I’ll be going with Billesdon Brook to claim another big race at a big price at 20/1 using Skybet’s offer.
Betting Forecast:
Circus Maximus 9/4, Terebellum 3/1, Fox Chairman 8/1, Duke Of Hazzard 12/1, Mohaather 12/1, Skardu 12/1, Roseman 12/1, Mustashry 14/1, Billesdon Brook 16/1, Space Traveller 20/1, Turjomaan 20/1, Plumatic 20/1, Bless Him 33/1, Escobar 50/1, Accidental Agent 50/1, Marie’s Diamond 50/1.
samyets 