It’s an absolute joy to be able to get excited for sports again and the Bundesliga is commencing during the COVID-19 pandemic with 6 fixtures this Saturday. Leipzig are currently sitting 3rd in the table, only 5 points from top spot Bayern but they’ve lost less games than the German Champions and have a real chance of maintaining a very impressive finish to the season.
Leipzig have conceded the joint least goals this season but have had an issue winning games of late. In their last 7 Bundesliga games they’ve dropped points in 5 of them. Amongst those 7 fixtures they annihilated 6th place Schalke away at the Veltins Arena and claimed a respectable point away at Bayern too. Unfortunately, their loss to under performing Frankfurt and failures to prevent conceding early goals against Leverkusen and Monchengladbach have meant they’ve slipped a few points behind the title challengers.
Timo Werner’s electric start to the season has fizzled out with the striker scoring just 1 in his last 7 league appearances as opposed to the 20 he scored in his first 18 games. The speculation surrounding him is immense as he’s available for a cheap fee considering his talent but he’s more than capable of flying back into form, especially after a 2-month break. Leipzig also have a tendency to score late, they’ve scored 12 out of their 62 league goals after the 80-minute mark, that’s a whopping 19% of their overall tally.
Freiburg won the Bundesliga 2 in 15/16 and then followed up with a European spot the year after but have finished in 13th and 15th in the most recent two seasons. This year has been hugely different where they’re only 1 point away from 6th and therefore Europe again. Nils Petersen is the man that’s expected to provide the goals, he’s been prolific for 6 seasons now and has scored 73 goals in his 158 appearances, an average of 0.46 goals a game. This season the problem has been consistency, they’ve lost games that you’d be expecting points in- 2-0 home losses to 16th and 18th place Dusseldorf and Paderborn really raise a question.
In the 9 meetings between the sides it’s a very even split with the results, there’s only been 1 draw and each side has picked up 4 wins each. Freiburg’s 4 wins have all come whilst playing at home and have never returned with more than a point when travelling to Leipzig. The reverse fixture in October this season saw Freiburg come away 2-1 victors and Leipzig only scored a consolation in the dying minutes of stoppage time.
This time around, Leipzig simply must win to keep their title challenge alive, after this game against Freiburg they’ve only got to play 2 more teams in the top half in their remaining 8 games, Hoffenheim away (13th June) and Dortmund at home (20th June), 3 points could really set them on their way and a win is anticipated.
The bookies have priced Leipzig as a very short price so the value doesn’t lie in the traditional markets, the referee for today’s game is Tobias Stieler and he’s given out 39 yellow cards and 6 reds in only 12 games he’s refereed this year. Konrad Laimer is notorious for yellow cards, the Austrian midfielder averages 0.40 cards per game and has also picked up a yellow card in 4 of his last 6 appearances. Nicolas Hofler of Freiburg is very similar in regard to the lack of discipline, he’s averaged 0.31 cards per game over the last 4 seasons and is an excellent choice for a punt.
Here is a bet builder with some of the stats shown in this piece, I’m going to have a play on it, the stake is not shown, bet what you can justify. Good luck and enjoy the return of football.
samyets 