Today marks the 10th running of the Marsh’s Novices Chase (formerly the JLT) that Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 5 of, all with favourites. The other 6 winners have only included 1 favourite and 1 horse that had a starting price in the double digits, Benefficient in 2013 for Tony Martin at 20/1.
Itchy Feet has opened as the favourite after sauntering to a grade 1 success where he defeated Midnight Shadow (re-opposing) with plenty in hand as he powered on at Sandown. Olly Murphy’s main chances for the festival are lead by the horse that won him his first ever G1 and after the unfortunate unseat of Brewin’upastorm in Tuesday’s Arkle, it leaves Itchy Feet to pick up the pieces to try and get him his first festival G1. The horse’s only run at Cheltenham in his career was at last year’s festival where he came 3rd in the Supreme behind Klassical Dream and Thomas Darby so we know he’s able at this course. This horse looks to have a good chance but isn’t an obvious pick whilst lurking around favouritism.
Samcro has yet to fulfil his expected potential when he switched from fences to hurdles. After the 8 wins he started his career off with, he fell at Punchestown in April 2018, went 3 races without a win and then made the switch over to chasing. After his chase debut in which he bolted up by 17 lengths he took on Fakir D’oudairies (2nd in the Arkle on Tuesday) and was travelling much the better before falling just before 2 out. He then took on Faugheen and lost by 10 lengths at Limerick but has since had wind surgery and could be seen in a new light.
Faugheen “the machine” is looking to make Cheltenham roar with a potential 12th grade 1 win and is coming into this race in form that’s not far off of his career peak. In last year’s Stayers Hurdle he finished 6L away from Paisley Park on good to soft which looks as if it’ll be today’s ground. His first race this season he won by 7L in an ordinary race and followed up with the convincing victory over Samcro. The most recent of Faugheen’s races has been a 1/2L win over Easy Game which was slightly more laboured but has merely continued the excellent form. If you then take into consideration Mullins’ recent record in this race, we could be looking at the leading contender for this year’s renewal.
Melon has acquitted himself very well over the years including his 2018 Champion Hurdle runner-up but hasn’t quite snapped into the chasing swing of things. He finished 3L behind previously mentioned Fakir D’oudiaires and recently didn’t even come close to competing with Notebook after a mistake. This Mullins entry looks to have his work cut out for him after a pretty sub standard season in comparison to some of today’s competitors. In contrast, some of Melon’s best form is at Cheltenham so it could possibly bring out a good performance.
Annie Mc was a big antepost price of 33/1 a month or so ago and has opened up at 14/1 this evening. Jonjo O’Neill’s mare has raced only against her own sex in her career and has never raced above a G4 but has shown bundles of improvement upon every win so it’s impossible to see where this horses’s limitations lie and can not be underestimated.
Other runners include Mister Fisher who won a grade 2 ahead of Al Dancer at Doncaster in January but that form hasn’t amounted to much with everyone in behind disappointing in their next races out. Reserve Tank has been jumping poorly this season and has been turned over as an odds on favourite in 2 of his 3 starts but, similar to Melon, if he can bring some of his hurdle form from last season (4 wins, 2 G1’s) then he could stand a good chance.
Bapaume is the mount of Rachael Blackmore and this Mullins’ third choice looks set for a tough task based on the performances put up this year whilst chasing, he was a huge distance behind Notebook on the most recent start who failed to justify favouritism this week in the Arkle. Midnight Shadow was 3L behind and weakening behind Itchy Feet when he won his first G1 but was 2L infront of Deyrann De Carjacc who is currently second favourite for the Stayers Hurdle, this horse has a reasonable chance at a bigger price.
FAUGHEEN rates a premium selection for the Marsh and the 5/1 that’s being offered at the time of writing cannot be something to ignore, this could be the crowning glory for his career coming up the Cheltenham hill. SKYBET are once again offering money back on this race if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th so it could be considered a risk free bet.
ENJOY.
samyets 