The opening race of the Cheltenham festival is one of the most mouth-watering races of the whole 4 days with Asterion Forlonge leading the market and the top pick of the Willie Mullins trio, here’s a small assessment of some of the market principles.
Asterion Forlonge at the time of writing is heading the market as an 5/2 favourite which is easily justified after his 9 1/2L trouncing of Easywork at Leopardstown where he instantly drew away coming to the last and stayed on stoutly to record an impressive win. Paul Townend will be doing the steering and he’s got a 50% win rate from his last 10 rides in the last 14 days. In the gelding’s previous race he beat Pencilfulloflead by 10L who’s gone on to win convincingly since. The high chances and price of this horse seem accurate but the slight tendency to jump right over hurdles could be a small factor that could create a couple of minor problems.
Shishkin fell on hurdle debut in mid-December but has moulded into what seems a perfect “Cheltenham horse”, he won a G4 race by 11L with ease and followed up with a listed success at Huntingdon. Nicky Henderson (trainer) has said that this horse is his best chance of a winner at the festival this year and Shishkin does look a very nice type but hasn’t really raced in races to the calibre of some others he’ll be against. This one looks a bit too short for me but the way he’s stayed on in the last two races will suit the Cheltenham hill and Henderson’s had 32 runners in the last 20 years in this race and only had 1 winner so he’s left this novice a lot to do.
Abracadabras represents significant value based on form alone. The Gordon Elliott trained runner has had 4 races this season with 3 victories, the only loss being a 1 1/2L defeat at the hands of short price Ballymore favourite, Envoi Allen, who is also the only horse to have beaten her over hurdles. In his G3 win in November she brushed aside Latest Exhibition (5/1 for the Albert Bartlett), who has franked the form by beating Andy Dufresne in a G2 and winning a G1 too. The third in that race was Darver Star (10/1 for the Champion Hurdle) who also finished 1/2L behind very promising mare, Honeysuckle. This horse is generally available at around 6/1 and it’s quite difficult to understand why; everything on paper is pointing to a huge run and a positive start to Gordon Elliot’s 2020 Cheltenham Festival.
Fiddlerontheroof is one of Colin Tizzard’s best chances for the festival and is a likeable type that’s progressed throughout the season, he finished 2L behind Albert Bartlett favourite Thyme Hill but he did finish 2nd to Edwardstone the race after. He’s already won a G1 and did it in decisive fashion but the second place Jeremy’s Flame was incredibly disappointing when favourite for a 24 runner race where it was not run to suit. There’s plenty of rain due for the first day which suits this gelding entirely, could be an outside shot at 13/2.
Captain Guinness has raced twice in his career and after his 7L debut success he took on Andy Dufresne in the Moscow Flyer and only lost out because of a slightly untidy jump at the last. The 16/1 price that’s mostly available is a fair price considering this gelding is completely unexposed and there’s no real guidelines as to whether he’ll be up for a race of this grade. Rachael Blackmore is on board today as she was in the previous race and in a bigger field, should help the horse settle a bit better. 16/1 is very reasonable.
Edwardstone is the last horse to touch on based on his form against the likes of Fiddlerontheroof and Harry Senior (9/1 for the Albert Bartlett), the Alan King trained gelding has been unfortunate to miss out in his last couple of races, getting pipped on the line by a stronger-staying Stolen Silver. Edwardstone beat Harry Senior by a length in December and the second placed horse has gone onto win a G2 comfortably and is expected to keep on improving. If Tom Cannon can drive this horse up the hill, there’s a good chance he can mix it with the market leaders.
ABRACADBRAS is the standout pick for this race and Skybet are also offering MONEY BACK IF YOU LOSE up to £10. At 6/1 and you can have your money back if it’s not to win, you simply have to make the most of it.
samyets 